Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 3, 2003Richland County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 3, 2003, 10:59 PM CDT for Richland County, North Dakota. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 3, 2003, 10:59 PM CDT (03:59 UTC)
Expired: Jul 4, 2003, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Richland County, ND

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 3, 10:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1927 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -22 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1633 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 201 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 2.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

684 
WUUS53 KFGF 040359
SVRFGF
NDC077-040500-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1058 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

* AT 1052 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 31 MILES WEST OF LIDGERWOOD...OR ABOUT 59 MILES
  WEST OF WAHPETON...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 55 MPH.  60 MPH WINDS
  WERE REPORTED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COGSWELL. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
  TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY. 

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  LIDGERWOOD AT 1120 PM...
  STILES AT 1125 PM...
  HANKINSON AT 1130 PM AND
  SONORA AT 1140 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4614 9719 4589 9724 4573 9679 4610 9661

$$

DTR/06

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 3, 8:40 PM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 8:40 PM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
840 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2003

ZFP UPDATED SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM FOR SVR TSTM WATCH FOR PARTS OF SE
ND.

THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING NEAR BISMARCK AND STARTING TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEAST ATTM.  SFC-85H WIND FLOW NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH 85H
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRETTY GOOD ALONG ND/SD BORDER BTWN 03-06Z.
MAIN DYNAMICS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH 00Z BIS
SOUNDING AND 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWING GOOD 500 MB WESTERLY FLOW
(AOA 50KTS) ALONG WITH CNTRL/ERN ND IN RIGHT REAR OF DEPARTING 100KT
250 MB JET.

QUESTION OF THE EVENING IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO COMPLEX NR BISMARCK.
ANOTHER LARGER COMPLEX IS DEVELOPING OVR CNTRL NEBRASKA CLOSER TO
BETTER 85H SOUTHERLY JET AND JUICY AIRMASS (70+ DEW PTS) AND SFC
BOUNDARY.  THINKING ACTIVITY NR BISMARCK WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST...BUT
WITH CELLS TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO SD WITH TIME...BRUSHING OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES.  AS 850 MB JET GETS GOING TONIGHT...MAIN MCS MAY
GET GOING LATER TONIGHT OVER SD INTO PARTS OF SRN MN.  LATEST 00Z
RUC MAINTAINS PCPN ALONG SE ND/SD INTO WCNTRL MN THRU 12Z WITH
ANOTHER STRONGER AREA SOUTH.  UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR WILL
NOT LIKELY ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING UNLESS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

SOME GRIDDS WILL NEED MODIFYING FOR CONVECTION...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.

.FGF...NONE

RIDDLE

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 3, 6:55 AM CDT, 16 hours 4 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
655 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
   THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST RISK TARGETED FOR AREAS ALONG
   AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE HOURS
OF 2PM AND 9PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BERG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 3, 10:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ransom, Sargent	55 min
Jul 3, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Sargent	32 min
Jul 4, 12:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.