Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 3, 2003Ransom County, Sargent County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 3, 2003, 10:20 PM CDT for Ransom County, Sargent County, North Dakota. It was in force for 55 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 3, 2003, 10:20 PM CDT (03:20 UTC)
Expired: Jul 3, 2003, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 55 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Ransom County, ND, Sargent County, ND

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1927 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -22 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1633 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 201 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 2.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 040320
SVRFGF
NDC073-081-040415-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1019 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN RANSOM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
  SARGENT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT.

* AT 1011 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES WEST OF CRETE...OR ABOUT 53 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF VALLEY CITY...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
  WINDS TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS IT MOVES QUICKLY
  SOUTHEAST. 

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  FORT RANSOM AT 1025 PM...
  ENGLEVALE AT 1030 PM...
  CRETE AT 1035 PM...
  STRAUBVILLE AT 1045 PM AND
  FORMAN AT 1050 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4661 9805 4614 9849 4567 9720 4588 9718

$$

DTR/06

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 3, 8:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 8:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
840 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2003

ZFP UPDATED SHORTLY AFTER 8 PM FOR SVR TSTM WATCH FOR PARTS OF SE
ND.

THUNDERSTORMS GETTING GOING NEAR BISMARCK AND STARTING TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEAST ATTM.  SFC-85H WIND FLOW NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH 85H
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PRETTY GOOD ALONG ND/SD BORDER BTWN 03-06Z.
MAIN DYNAMICS ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH 00Z BIS
SOUNDING AND 00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWING GOOD 500 MB WESTERLY FLOW
(AOA 50KTS) ALONG WITH CNTRL/ERN ND IN RIGHT REAR OF DEPARTING 100KT
250 MB JET.

QUESTION OF THE EVENING IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO COMPLEX NR BISMARCK.
ANOTHER LARGER COMPLEX IS DEVELOPING OVR CNTRL NEBRASKA CLOSER TO
BETTER 85H SOUTHERLY JET AND JUICY AIRMASS (70+ DEW PTS) AND SFC
BOUNDARY.  THINKING ACTIVITY NR BISMARCK WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST...BUT
WITH CELLS TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO SD WITH TIME...BRUSHING OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES.  AS 850 MB JET GETS GOING TONIGHT...MAIN MCS MAY
GET GOING LATER TONIGHT OVER SD INTO PARTS OF SRN MN.  LATEST 00Z
RUC MAINTAINS PCPN ALONG SE ND/SD INTO WCNTRL MN THRU 12Z WITH
ANOTHER STRONGER AREA SOUTH.  UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR WILL
NOT LIKELY ISSUE ANOTHER UPDATE THIS EVENING UNLESS CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

SOME GRIDDS WILL NEED MODIFYING FOR CONVECTION...OTHERWISE TEMPS
LOOK GOOD.

.FGF...NONE

RIDDLE

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 3, 6:55 AM CDT, 15 hours 25 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
655 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
   THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST RISK TARGETED FOR AREAS ALONG
   AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA COUNTIES. THE
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE HOURS
OF 2PM AND 9PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BERG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 3, 10:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	61 min
Jul 3, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Sargent	32 min
Jul 4, 12:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.