Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

May 6, 2003Fayette County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 6, 2003, 3:34 PM CDT for Fayette County, Texas. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 6, 2003, 3:34 PM CDT (20:34 UTC)
Expired: May 6, 2003, 4:30 PM CDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Fayette County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 262 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1611 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -465 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 798 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

965 
WUUS54 KEWX 062034
SVRSAT
TXC149-062130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
332 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN TEXAS...
  FAYETTE

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF LA GRANGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
RURAL FAYETTE COUNTY AT 350 PM

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.


LAT...LON 3003 9661 2981 9692 2993 9706 3006 9694
          3015 9680 3016 9670 3011 9664

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 6, 2:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 6, 2:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THUNDERSTORMS ARE WANING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA...AND FIRING
OVER THE ERN HALF. THE ONLY REPORT WE RECEIVED WAS PEA TO SMALL
MARBLE SIZE HAIL IN NORTH AUSTIN AROUND 120 PM. THE VERY SHORT TERM
IS INTERESTING IN THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM THE HILL COUNTRY CONVECTION
SLID UNDERNEATH THE BIG CAP OVER SRN TX...QUASHING ALL CONVECTION
WEST. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NERN AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO
HOURS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO SERN TX BY 4
PM.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPS THROUGH FRI...POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPS NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z NCEP MODELS ARE IN GOOD
TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. BUT AS USUAL...WILL GO WITH GFS FOR
CONTINUITY AND FOR MUCH BETTER MAV VS. FWC GUIDANCE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT TOO...SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FAR FROM MEX TEMPS/POPS.

OVERALL...A QUIET BUT WARM PERIOD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE POLAR JET
SHIFTS ORIENTATION INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...STRONG CAPPING PREVENTS
CONVECTION...AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW MAINTAIN STEAMY AIR OVER SCNTRL
TX. THE NEXT BIG SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE WRN LONGWAVE
TROUGH ARRIVES MOSTLY SUN...SO WILL KEEP OUT POPS THROUGH SAT AND
AGAIN MON-WED. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUN...THEN
SLIDE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

.EWX...NONE.

26/02/PM

PRELIMS...
AUS 074/093 074/092 074 000
DRT 073/100 074/099 074 000
SAT 075/093 075/092 074 000

Hazardous weather outlook, May 6, 9:10 AM CDT, 6 hours 24 minutes before

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
910 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 10.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO RISK FOR TORNADOES. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT TIME WILL BE FROM 2 TO 6 PM...ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STATIONARY SPOTTERS WILL BE HELPFUL FOR WIND AND HAIL REPORTS.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
NORMAL ACTIVITIES BUT PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 6, 3:17 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
317 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    2 N ELGIN                 TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   BASTROP                        REPORTED BY CO-OP
                                          OBSERVERS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 6, 8:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Blanco, Kendall	63 min
May 6, 11:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Kerr	59 min
May 6, 1:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bandera, Real	54 min
May 6, 2:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bastrop, Lee	62 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.