Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THUNDERSTORMS ARE WANING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA...AND FIRING
OVER THE ERN HALF. THE ONLY REPORT WE RECEIVED WAS PEA TO SMALL
MARBLE SIZE HAIL IN NORTH AUSTIN AROUND 120 PM. THE VERY SHORT TERM
IS INTERESTING IN THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM THE HILL COUNTRY CONVECTION
SLID UNDERNEATH THE BIG CAP OVER SRN TX...QUASHING ALL CONVECTION
WEST. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NERN AREA FOR THE NEXT TWO
HOURS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INTO SERN TX BY 4
PM.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE TEMPS THROUGH FRI...POPS OVER
THE WEEKEND...THEN TEMPS NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z NCEP MODELS ARE IN GOOD
TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. BUT AS USUAL...WILL GO WITH GFS FOR
CONTINUITY AND FOR MUCH BETTER MAV VS. FWC GUIDANCE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT TOO...SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FAR FROM MEX TEMPS/POPS.

OVERALL...A QUIET BUT WARM PERIOD THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE POLAR JET
SHIFTS ORIENTATION INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...STRONG CAPPING PREVENTS
CONVECTION...AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW MAINTAIN STEAMY AIR OVER SCNTRL
TX. THE NEXT BIG SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE WRN LONGWAVE
TROUGH ARRIVES MOSTLY SUN...SO WILL KEEP OUT POPS THROUGH SAT AND
AGAIN MON-WED. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUN...THEN
SLIDE BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

.EWX...NONE.

26/02/PM

PRELIMS...
AUS 074/093 074/092 074 000
DRT 073/100 074/099 074 000
SAT 075/093 075/092 074 000

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
910 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 10.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO RISK FOR TORNADOES. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT TIME WILL BE FROM 2 TO 6 PM...ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STATIONARY SPOTTERS WILL BE HELPFUL FOR WIND AND HAIL REPORTS.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
NORMAL ACTIVITIES BUT PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS.

TXZ171>173-188-190-192>194-062000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
925 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266 IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 3 PM...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 910 AM UNTIL 3 PM TODAY.
COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE...
BASTROP...BLANCO...BURNET...GILLESPIE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS...AND
WILLIAMSON.

RESIDENTS SHOULD RAISE THEIR LEVEL OF AWARENESS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HAVE A NOAA WEATHER RADIO HANDY OR STAY TUNED
TO LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...
STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

26/JWZ