Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
652 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

DID SOME MINOR REVISIONS TO THE FORECASTS. CONCERNED ABOUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. LITTLE CAP IN PLACE AND
ALTHOUGH SEEING SOME STABILIZATION IN AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS...EXPECT TO SEE SOME RECOVERY BY
THE TIME THE BOUNDARY HAS ENTERED NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 18Z. THUS
WILL PULL CHANCES OF STORMS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.

PC

330 AM...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS WITH WHERE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP TODAY AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TO TAKE PLACE.  THEN LOCATION OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALSO
THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THESE MCS FEATURES WILL HAVE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CURRENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHERN
HALF OF FORECAST AREA AT START OF DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STILL SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN ITS
VICINITY.  ALSO EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHWEST
PART OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LIFT.  MCS
TONIGHT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI...SO WILL KEEP CHANCES
LOW IN NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...MCS EXITS MISSOURI...THEN WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR NEXT MCS
TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT FORECAST AREA DURING DAY ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SETTLES ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TODAY...SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDINESS SOUTH WITH DYING MCS...SO
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON WEDNESDAY...850 TEMPERATURES JUMP UP INTO THE 18 DEGREE RANGE.
SHOULD BE WARM ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN SOUTHEAST PART MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME.

PC

950 PM...
AM MAKING SOME CHANGES TO EXPECTED WEATHER FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
BASED UPON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND 00Z MESOETA RUN BEST
BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF MO.
CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESS CONTOURS INDICATE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY PROGGED TO REACH THE MO RIVER AROUND 12Z. WILL
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 CWA FOR 12Z-16Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR MCS MOVING THROUGH. STILL
EXPECT REGENERATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST MO TOMORROW.

MJ

349 PM...
MAIN FORECAST CONCENTRATION IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW STRADDLING THE SOUTH
DAKOTA-NEBRASKA BORDER. ALSO SEEING THE BEGINNING STAGES OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
CAP WEAKENS...REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI BETWEEN 02Z
AND 04Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...WHEN A
50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A KEY PLAYER...AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS SUBSEQUENTLY MAXIMIZED. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONGEAL
INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AROUND/AFTER 06Z.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL...THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY AN ETA-PROGGED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE ON THE 310K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE FORECAST TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. THERE IS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES...850 DEWPOINTS AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND THE FACT THAT
FLOW ALONG THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE POINTS TOWARD AN AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO LOSE ITS OOMPH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SO PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. SHOULD THEN SEE A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BREAK IN
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE NEXT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
THE ENVIRONMENT MAY INITIALLY BE CAPPED...CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED.
INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THEN THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET CRANKING AGAIN AFTER
00Z...QUITE LIKELY RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER MCS...WITH
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

SCHMIT

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. DETAILS REGARDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE TO BE SKETCHY...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES SPEEDING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER WESTERLY FLOW.
THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND/OR ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO
COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. SO...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. TEMP-WISE...READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL VALUES.

NRR

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1246 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE
KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...TO CARROLLTON...TO MACON MISSOURI...AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO MOBERLY MISSOURI THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. THEN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN AREAS
FROM KANSAS CITY TO MACON AND SOUTHWARD...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LS

MOZ053-054-101615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 503 HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 1108 AM
CDT TUESDAY MORNING. COUNTIES NO LONGER UNDER THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE...

IN MISSOURI:

BATES AND HENRY.

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
AREA.

KSZ057-060-103>105-MOZ021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-110000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
125 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 504...IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BATES...CALDWELL...CARROLL...CASS...CHARITON...CLAY...CLINTON...
COOPER...HENRY...HOWARD...JACKSON...JOHNSON...LAFAYETTE...LINN...
LIVINGSTON...MACON...PETTIS...PLATTE...RANDOLPH...RAY AND SALINE.

IN KANSAS:

JOHNSON...LEAVENWORTH...LINN...MIAMI AND WYANDOTTE.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE BOONVILLE...
BUTLER...CHILLICOTHE...CLINTON...HARRISONVILLE...KANSAS CITY...
MARSHALL...MOBERLY...OLATHE...PAOLA...SEDALIA AND WARRENSBURG.

SF