Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS WITH WHERE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP TODAY AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS TO TAKE PLACE.  THEN LOCATION OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALSO
THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THESE MCS FEATURES WILL HAVE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...CURRENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHERN
HALF OF FORECAST AREA AT START OF DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STILL SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN ITS
VICINITY.  ALSO EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHWEST
PART OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PROVIDES ADDITIONAL LIFT.  MCS
TONIGHT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI...SO WILL KEEP CHANCES
LOW IN NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...MCS EXITS MISSOURI...THEN WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR NEXT MCS
TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT FORECAST AREA DURING DAY ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SETTLES ACROSS FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TODAY...SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDINESS SOUTH WITH DYING MCS...SO
EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON WEDNESDAY...850 TEMPERATURES JUMP UP INTO THE 18 DEGREE RANGE.
SHOULD BE WARM ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH A LITTLE
LINGERING CLOUDINESS IN SOUTHEAST PART MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW
DEGREES.

WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME.

PC

950 PM...
AM MAKING SOME CHANGES TO EXPECTED WEATHER FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
BASED UPON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND 00Z MESOETA RUN BEST
BET FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF MO.
CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESS CONTOURS INDICATE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY PROGGED TO REACH THE MO RIVER AROUND 12Z. WILL
LOWER POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO CHANCE CATEGORY. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHERN 1/3 CWA FOR 12Z-16Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR MCS MOVING THROUGH. STILL
EXPECT REGENERATION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST MO TOMORROW.

MJ

349 PM...
MAIN FORECAST CONCENTRATION IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW STRADDLING THE SOUTH
DAKOTA-NEBRASKA BORDER. ALSO SEEING THE BEGINNING STAGES OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
CAP WEAKENS...REACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI BETWEEN 02Z
AND 04Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...WHEN A
50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES A KEY PLAYER...AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS SUBSEQUENTLY MAXIMIZED. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONGEAL
INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AROUND/AFTER 06Z.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL...THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY AN ETA-PROGGED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE ON THE 310K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE FORECAST TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. THERE IS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES...850 DEWPOINTS AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND THE FACT THAT
FLOW ALONG THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE POINTS TOWARD AN AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO LOSE ITS OOMPH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS
OFF TUESDAY MORNING...SO PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z. SHOULD THEN SEE A LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BREAK IN
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE NEXT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
THE ENVIRONMENT MAY INITIALLY BE CAPPED...CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED.
INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THEN THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET CRANKING AGAIN AFTER
00Z...QUITE LIKELY RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER MCS...WITH
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

SCHMIT

NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. DETAILS REGARDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE TO BE SKETCHY...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES SPEEDING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER WESTERLY FLOW.
THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND/OR ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO
COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. SO...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. TEMP-WISE...READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL VALUES.

NRR

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A COMPLEX.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AFTER TUESDAY...PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY...NONE OF WHICH ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED TO ADDITIONAL
OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

SCHMIT

KSZ025-102-103-MOZ001>006-011>015-020-021-028-101000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1214 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 502...IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

ANDREW...ATCHISON...BUCHANAN...CLINTON...DAVIESS...DE KALB...
GENTRY...GRUNDY...HARRISON...HOLT...MERCER...NODAWAY...PLATTE AND
WORTH.

IN KANSAS:

ATCHISON...DONIPHAN AND LEAVENWORTH.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE ATCHISON...
BETHANY...MARYVILLE...ROCKPORT...ST JOSEPH AND TRENTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
225 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0156 AM    SAVANNAH                  MO   .75 INCH HAIL
06/10/03   ANDREW                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

MJ

KSZ025-102-103-MOZ001>006-011>015-020-021-028-101000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
239 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 502 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

ANDREW...ATCHISON...DE KALB...GENTRY...HARRISON...HOLT...MERCER...
NODAWAY AND WORTH.

SOME CITIES NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE
BETHANY...MARYVILLE AND ROCKPORT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 502 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM
CDT TUESDAY MORNING...FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN KANSAS:

ATCHISON...DONIPHAN AND LEAVENWORTH.

IN MISSOURI:

BUCHANAN...CLINTON...DAVIESS...GRUNDY AND PLATTE.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE ATCHISON...ST
JOSEPH AND TRENTON.

MJ