Tornado Warning 16, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CHANCE FOR TSTORMS TONIGHT TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO NWRN MN.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME ALREADY SEVERE...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
MUCH NERN MN/NWRN AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS
ATM FURTHER DESTABILIZES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...AND
FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HOWEVER AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
INDICATE...CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SCATTERED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH NO STRONG ORGANIZED FORCING MECHANISM.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH A 500 MB TROUGH
DIGGING OUT OF CANADA WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER DUE TO STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH...WILL GO WITH WIDE SPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL WILL
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS 500 MB TROUGH/VORTMAX AXIS MOVES EAST
ACROSS...AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY ON MONDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. HOWEVER WITH COOL NW FLOW ALOFT...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY DESTABILIZE ATM ENOUGH BY MON AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SO WILL ADD CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE 4TH
PERIOD...DECREASING THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MONDAY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END AND ATM STABILIZES.

.DLH...NONE.

BERDES

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL FALLS...BRAINERD...GRAND
RAPIDS...GRAND MARAIS AND DULUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO TONIGHT...INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS NEXT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND IN ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

MELDE