Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/STRENGTH TODAY INTO
SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT HANDLING UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...BUT DIFFER ON OTHER FEATURES SUCH AS FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...BUT LEAN TOWARD THE ETA.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND IN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. ANOTHER STRONG STORM
WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ALSO IN AREA OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY...AS
DOES INCREASING INSTABILITY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS...AND RESULTANT
SURFACE LIFTED INDEX...A BIT OVERDONE TODAY. ETA SHOWS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN CWA...BUT GFS
AND ETA MOS NUMBERS ARE 3-5F LOWER AND SEEM MORE REASONABLE.
INSTABILITY DOES DROP THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS...FROM
ABOUT 60 TO THE UPPER 60S...MOVES NORTH. 850MB LIFTED INDEX OF -5 TO
-8C EXISTS FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TO BRD BY 00Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
FRONT AIDING LIFT AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR INCREASES AS
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW MOVES IN. SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS.

TONIGHT...ETA HAS SURFACE FRONT CLEARING CWA. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING ALL AREAS...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING WITH THESE FEATURES AFFECTING CWA.

USE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

.DLH...NONE.

MELDE

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO CREATE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL FALLS...BRAINERD...GRAND
RAPIDS...GRAND MARAIS AND DULUTH WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO TONIGHT...INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME. A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS NEXT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND IN ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DLH

MELDE