Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER TO JUST LOW CHANCE.  STILL
LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  QUESTION IS - HOW MUCH AFFECT WILL
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER OH/WV HAVE ON CENTRAL PA.  STILL EXPECT
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE NEAR FROPA WHERE HIGHEST
MOISTURE WILL POOL GIVING STORMS A LITTLE EXTRA KICK.

PREV AFD FOLLOWS
----------------------------------------------------------------
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF TSRA JUST MOVED INLAND
FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE VILS IN THE
45-50 RANGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS OF 45 MPH IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHAFTS...AND PERHAPS BRIEF
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL PROBABLY BE THE MOST NOTABLE ELEMENT OF THE
STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AND REFORM CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...AND ALSO ALONG THE SUSQ VALLEYS LEE TROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLEARING MOVES INTO THE NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADS
SE OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BY 10-15 DEG IN MOST AREAS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z SAT.

SPECTACULAR WEEKEND SHAPING UP WITH SOME OF THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS SO
FAR THIS SUMMER ACCOMPANYING THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS. ISOLATED SPOTS
OF THE NRN MTNS MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE U30S EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE SOME 5-7 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...BUT MINS SUNDAY
MORNING COULD BE ABOUT 10-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. ETA 1000-850 HPA
THICKNESS ANOMALY COMES IN AT -1 TO -2 STD DEVIATIONS EARLY
SUNDAY.

WARMER...AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS (ESP
ACROSS THE NORTH) AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY (WARMER AND
MORE HUMID) BEFORE ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT CROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON
WEDNESDAY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...SPS - SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TODAY (WITH 100 F HEAT INDEX
STATEMENT NESTED IN) FOR NEARLY THE ERN HALF OF OUR CWA.

LAMBERT

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-221130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
540 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND LOWER AND MID SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDICES WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY... ESPECIALLY
IN THE URBAN AREAS OF HARRISBURG...LANCASTER AND YORK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RXR

PAZ034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-222330-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH. THE WARM AND HUMID
AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE AS THE
DAY CONTINUES.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF A
WILLIAMSPORT TO BEDFORD LINE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...BUT LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DANGELO

PAZ034-035-221900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
226 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT  SOUTHERN BEDFORD AND FULTON
COUNTIES...

AT 222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TWO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY AND
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT ONLY 5 TO
10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL...AND POSSIBLY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS
AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. THE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP QUICKLY IN THE HEAVY RAIN...AND DRIVING MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT.

DANGELO

PAZ052-058-222045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SCHUYLKILL AND NORTHUMBERLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHAMOKIN...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ROUGH AND READY...AND SHAMOKIN
AROUND 355 PM...VALLEY VIEW AROUND 405 PM...TOWER CITY AROUND 410
PM...MUIR AROUND 415 PM...TREMONT...JOE ZERBEY AIRPORT AND GORDON
AROUND 430 PM...AND PINE GROVE AROUND 435 PM.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM.