Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF TSRA JUST MOVED INLAND
FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE VILS IN THE
45-50 RANGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS OF 45 MPH IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHAFTS...AND PERHAPS BRIEF
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL PROBABLY BE THE MOST NOTABLE ELEMENT OF THE
STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AND REFORM CLOSER TO
THE FRONT...AND ALSO ALONG THE SUSQ VALLEYS LEE TROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

CLEARING MOVES INTO THE NW ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREADS
SE OVERNIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING BY 10-15 DEG IN MOST AREAS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z SAT.

SPECTACULAR WEEKEND SHAPING UP WITH SOME OF THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS SO
FAR THIS SUMMER ACCOMPANYING THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS. ISOLATED SPOTS
OF THE NRN MTNS MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE U30S EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE SOME 5-7 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...BUT MINS SUNDAY
MORNING COULD BE ABOUT 10-12 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. ETA 1000-850 HPA
THICKNESS ANOMALY COMES IN AT -1 TO -2 STD DEVIATIONS EARLY
SUNDAY.

WARMER...AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS (ESP
ACROSS THE NORTH) AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH
DURING THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY (WARMER AND
MORE HUMID) BEFORE ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG FRONT CROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON
WEDNESDAY.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...SPS - SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TODAY (WITH 100 F HEAT INDEX
STATEMENT NESTED IN) FOR NEARLY THE ERN HALF OF OUR CWA.

LAMBERT

PAZ004-220830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
306 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT WARREN
COUNTY THROUGH 430 AM...

AT 257 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF JAMESTOWN
TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF UNION CITY TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EDINBORO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
COLUMBUS...BEAR LAKE AT 315 AM...SUGAR GROVE...SPRING CREEK...
LOTTSVILLE AT 330 AM...YOUNGSVILLE AT 350 AM...RUSSELL...GARLAND AT
355 AM...GERMANY AT 405 AM AND WARREN AT 410 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES OR
STAY IN THE OPEN WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS.

LAMBERT/MARTIN