Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
751 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ORGANIZED
WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INCREASING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN A REGION OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING
OUT OF MEXICO. RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AT COTULLA TO GOOD CHANCE
FROM LAREDO TO VICTORIA. ONLY RAISED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST...STILL IFFY IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST BEFORE THE
SEABREEZE MOVES IN.

89...TMT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHORT-TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...SQUALL LINE MVG ACROSS DRTS AREA AND
FARTHER SW OVR MEX IS MOVG GENERALLY E AROUND 20-25 KT. STRONGEST
PART OF THE LINE IS THE PORTION MVG SE TWD NW CWA. IR SATELLITE
SHOWS COOLING TOPS IN THAT AREA WITH WARMING TOPS FARTHER SW. DRTS
SOUNDING HAD LESS CIN VALUES THAN CRPS SOUNDING...ALTHOUGH MODELS
INDICATE A SLIGHT COOLING OF LOW/MID LEVS FARTHER E THRU THIS
MORN. UPPER LEV JET IS NOSING INTO THE REGION PLACING THE HILL
COUNTRY UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE LFQ. BOTH ETA AND AVN SHOW PRECIP
TREKING EWD AND AFFECTING NRN PORTIONS OF CWA TODAY. FEEL THAT WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTG TO TREK E AND SFC FORCING BEING ENHANCED BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE...THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVR NRN CWA. QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF INTERACTION BETWEEN
CURRENT CONVECTION HEADING E COLLIDING WITH SEA BREEZE. WILL GO CHC
POPS W FOR CURRENT MVMNT OF TSRAS AND CHC NRN ZONES FOR LATER
MORN/AFTERNOON TSRAS. TONIGHT...2 INCH PWATS ARE PROGD TO MV N ACRS
THE NW GULF. LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH WILL ENCHANCE STREAMER
SHRAS FOR COASTAL WATERS AND E CWA. ANOTHER S/WV WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL PRECIP OVR MEX BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRAS NEAR THE
W CWA.

LONG-TERM (12Z WED THROUGH MON)...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER/FREE
ATMOSPHERE FORCING ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND AN UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS EXCEPT BORDERLINE CHANCE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET/SURFACE THERMAL CYCLONE WILL
GENERATE LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONCERNED THAT A
MESOSCALE SYSTEM MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A 500HPA SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS.
SLACKENING WINDS ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND THE PRESENCE
OF A 500HPA TROUGH AXIS WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS(EXCEPT LOW GRADE
CHANCE NORTHEAST CWA) SUNDAY/MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
A REFLECTION OF PERSISTENCE.

CRP EE 091/078 093/079 094 2221
VCT EE 092/076 093/077 094 4032
LRD EE 100/079 101/079 102 4211

.CRP...NONE.

81/SHORT-TERM
85/LONG-TERM

TXZ229>234-239>247-110815-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LOSE INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MOSTLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF STORMS MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE HILL COUNTRY. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DUE TO A THERMAL LOW ACROSS WEST
TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

TE/BB