Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
945 AM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID LVL S/W ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER ATTM
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCED BY NW-SE
ORIENTED UPR JET DIVING SOUTH TOWARD MONTERREY MX. THE S/W IS
PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTN BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SH/TSRA. 12Z MODELS ARE SPLIT ON SOLUTIONS FOR TDY. THE
ETA/NGM/RUC MODELS INDICATE A UNIFIED S/W WILL ENHANCE PCPN THRU
THE HEART OF OUR CWA THIS AFTN...WHILE THE OUTLIER (AVN) MAINTAINS
TWO DISTINCT VORT MAXES...ONE TO THE NORTH AND A SECOND TO THE SOUTH
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE
IMAGES...BLV THE AVN MAY BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. SFC DIVERGENCE WAS
DEVELOPING OVER LAND ATTM WHILE CONVERGENCE WAS INCREASING NEAR THE
VCNTY OF THE SFC LOW IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS NEAR BUOY 42020. LOOKS
LIKE THE WAVE OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE VALLEY WILL SWING INTO THE
GULF THIS AFTN...ENHANCING PCPN NEAR THE SFC LOW. THIS WILL KEEP
PCPN MORE SCATTERED OVER LAND AND MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE WATER.
THUS WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE POP CONFIGURATION EXCEPT TO
LOWER THEM IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT EXPECT BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE 70S BY MID AFTN. FOR THE
CWF...I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCT-NUM AND ADDED MENTION OF SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.CRP...NONE.

75/JM (SHORT TERM)

TXZ229>234-239>247-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1205 PM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
BEND THIS AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO
STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...MAINLY EAST OF AN ALICE TO
BEEVILLE LINE. HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR THE BAY AND GULF
WATERS ON TUESDAY...AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.