Special Marine Warning 91, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
923 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

RADAR SHOWS AREA OF SHWRS OVR CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
WITH PRECIP MOVING NORTHWARD. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS BEST CHC OF SOME
BRKS OF SUN FOR AWHILE OVR CNY AND TWD THE ST LAW VALLEY BUT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURG THE
AFTN ESPECIALLY FROM MID AFTN ON. AIR QUITE JUICY WITH DEW PTS IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S SO WILL ADD HUMID TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARND 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES COULD GET SOME
LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS IN SOME TSTMS.

FCST TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN GENLY LOOK OK BUT WITH MORE CLD COVER IN
SOUTHERN TIER WILL LWR TEMPS TO MID 70S FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO REST OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

EARLIER AFD FOLLOWS...

IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THE DURATION AND PERSISTENCE OF THIS TROUGHY
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  IT IS REALLY HARD TO ARGUE
NOT MENTIONING A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EVERY PERIOD RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  WE WILL NOT DO THAT THOUGH AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
STILL LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.  MORE DETAIL BELOW ON
THAT.

TIMING IS STILL THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM WITH SUBTLE MESOSCALE
FEATURES TRIGGERING EVENTS.  OVERNIGHT WAS A VERY GOOD EXAMPLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION WITH SOME
LOCATIONS PICKING UP MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN.  CURRENTLY THAT
MESOSCALE EVENT IS RETREATING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.

FOR TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ELONGATES WEST OF US WITH A VORT MAX
SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF IT.  BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WE
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BASE OF TROUGH SWINGS SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THEN WILL MAKE THINGS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
FOR MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONLY FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF TROUGH DIGS AGAIN JUST TO OUR WEST BUT THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY REMAINS NORTH.  CHANCE CATEGORY POPS LOOK
REASONABLE.  MAY NOT BE TOO BAD OF A DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WE WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY BUT CANT IGNORE
WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK ON LATEST GFS.  WILL
HAVE TO KEEP SOMETHING IN FOR THE EASTERN ZONES BOTH DAYS.

NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AS IT IS APPARENT THE THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIVE ON

THATS IT FOR NOW.  ZONES SHOULD BE ON THE STREET AROUND 4 AM.

.BUF...NONE.

JJP/SAGE

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-051045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT WITH
RECENT HEAVY RAINS THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ACTIVIATED TODAY OR TONIGHT BUT SPOTER
INFORMATION ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HELPFUL.

SAGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
0116 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1245 PM    WEST FALLS                NY   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/05/03   ERIE                           2 TREES DOWN ON WEST FALLS
                                          RD REPORTED BY COUNTY
                                          OFFICIAL.

1245 PM    WEST FALLS                NY   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
08/05/03   ERIE                           LARGE APPLE TREE DOWN
                                          ADJACENT TO RTE 240
                                          REPORTED BY BROADCAST MEDIA

NIZIOL