Special Marine Warning 28, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
545 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

AMPLE SUNSHINE OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES
REGION HAS BOOSTED SFC TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S...WHILE SOME SITES
ARE SHOWING TDS IN THE MID 60S. THIS HAS PUMPED OBSERVED CAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG FOR THAT REGION...WHILE VALUES OF 400-800 J/KG
REMAIN MORE TYPICAL FOR THE IAG FRONTIER AND WRN SOUTHERN TIER.

BOTH MSAS AND LAPS DISPLAYS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE SE SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SWATH OF -SHRA
AND -TSRA THAT STRETCHES FROM SRN ONTARIO...CENT LAKE ERIE AND EASTRN
OHIO.

LDS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONCENTRATED NEG STRIKES WITH THE
APPROACHING PCPN...ALTHOUGH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER SE OHIO
DOES SHOW MORE IMPRESSIVE NEG STRIKES. CONCENTRATED NEG STRIKES ARE
TYPICAL IN AREAS OF STRONG UPDRAFTS.

AGAIN...AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE...BUT NOT AS WORRISOME AS ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED. WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS ACTIVITY AS
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE NOW COMING INTO PLAY. SE SFC FLOW
IS STILL IN PLACE...WITH BUF VWP SHOWING STRONGLY BACKING WINDS IN
LOWEST 2K.

.BUF...NONE.

RSH

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-080830-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE EAST. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA...INCLUDING THE NIAGARA FRONTIER, WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE GENESEE VALLEY...COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
THE THREAT WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
SECTIONS OF NEW YORK.