Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
805 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

.SHORT TERM...BUSY WEATHER SCENE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH
SHRA/TSRA FIRING ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES. SEA
BREEZE BNDRY INTERSECTING WITH OUTFLOW NEAR JIM HOGG COUNTY IS
GIVING AN EXTRA BOOST TO THE TSRA THERE. BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH NONE OF THE MODELS
SHOWING PERSISTENCE BEYOND SUNSET WITH CONVECTION UP N. MODELS SHOW
WET PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH FRI. H5 RIDGING TO THE W OF THE CWA
WILL SUPPRESS ACCESS TO EPAC MOISTURE SOMEWHAT. IF BAJA LOW DIGS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE E...GFS SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE S COULD
BRING UP MOISTURE/ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF. IF THIS
HAPPENS...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WED AS H5 VORT NEARS FALCON.

LONG TERM...GFS SUGGESTS ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT A BIT ON
FRI AS H5 TROF DIGS YET AGAIN OVER THE ERN US. H5 RIDGING TO THE LEE
OF THE ERN US TROF KEEPS THE CWA A BIT DRIER THRU MON. HOWEVER...
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SOME SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3 FEET AT 7 SECONDS CAN BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NEXT 24H...DECREASING TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY EARLY WED MRNG. SCT
SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP NEARSHORE TUE/WED...BECMG SCT OVR ALL OF
THE MARINE ZNS THU. A GENERAL EAST FLOW WILL PERSIST...AT ONLY 10 TO
15 KTS...BECMG MORE NE BY LATE FRI THRU SAT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE CAMERON COUNTY GULF WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TNGT...WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITY OF 1 TO 3 MILES EXPECTED
FM 4 TO 8 AM TUE. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
INLAND AND DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING TUE...THEN RETURN BY MORNING
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY TUE MORNING...THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE SE
WIND...XCPT NEAR SCT TSTMS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TUE...AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE        BB 075/086 075/087 075 20/40/20/30/10
HARLINGEN          BB 074/088 074/088 074 20/40/20/30/10
MCALLEN            BB 073/091 072/091 073 20/40/20/30/10
RIO GRANDE CITY    BB 072/092 071/092 072 20/30/10/30/10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND BB 078/084 078/084 078 20/40/20/30/10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC-GRIDS...62
MARINE-AVIATION...58
MESO...CAMPBELL

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
740 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE..TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN
HIDALGO...BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED
IF DRIVING IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT. PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 77 AND
HIGHWAY 83. DRIVE WITH CARE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE
FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

PHILO