Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

.SHORT RANGE...KBRO 88D SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
IN AN UNSTABLE ATM THIS PM. LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT NOTED...WITH
WELCOME RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THESE STORMS.

LATEST MDLS DATA INDICATE ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHRAS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
SAT...LESS LIKELY SUN...AS UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCES MORE AND AVAILABLE
S/WV ENERGY DECREASES. UPPER AIR PATTERN ALLOWS S/WV MVMT WEST UNDER
H5 CENTERED OVR OK...WITH LESS MVMT OF WESTWARD MVG S/WVS BY LATE
SUN...AND ZONAL PATTERN SETTING UP OVR CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE
MON.

LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING ZFPBRO.

.LONG RANGE...MORE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION SCHEDULED FOR THE
REGION DAY 3 THRU 7...WITH RELATIVELY QUIET TROPICS IN OUR REGION.
CLIMO TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

.MARINE...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE MARINE AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE GULF THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SEAS OVER THE MARINE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 2 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AVIATION....IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL AIRPORTS AS
TSTMS DEVELOP. MAINLY VFR SCHEDULED AFTER THIS PM CONVECTION... WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE         EB 078/093 078/092 078 10/20/00/20/05
HARLINGEN           EB 077/095 077/097 077 10/20/20/20/10
MCALLEN             BB 077/099 077/098 077 10/20/20/20/10
RIO GRANDE CITY     BB 076/100 076/100 076 10/10/10/10/00
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  BB 079/090 079/091 080 10/20/20/20/10

.BRO...NONE.

SYNOPTIC-GRIDS...58/MARINE-AVIATION-MESO...63

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
152 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS DUE
TO AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
SEABREEZE FRONTS WITH PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MARTIN

TXZ250-251-253>257-221930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
134 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN LIFTED BY THE
SEA BREEZE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. BE ALERT TO POOR
VISIBILITIES AND ROADWAY PONDING IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. PHILO

PHILO