Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

.SHORT RANGE...KBRO 88D PPINE ATTM WITH BRO 12Z SOUNDING REFLECTING
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATM OVR THE RGV. PWATS 1.85 AND LIS
AT -9. IR STLT PICS SHOW MCS FADING OVR CENTRAL TX (BETWEEN KGRK AND
KEWX)...WITH REGENERATION OF CONVECTION S OF GLS ATTM. OUTFLOWS
APPROACHING OUR AREA FM THE NE. MESO LIFT WILL BE MAJOR
TRIGGER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT TO ASSIST...AS
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS FM AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION NORTHEAST IS
AVAILABLE BY LATE MRNG/EARLY PM.

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO ZFPBRO.

.LONG RANGE...MORE SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION SCHEDULED FOR THE
REGION DAY 3 THRU 7...WITH RELATIVELY QUIET TROPICS IN OUR REGION.
CLIMO TEMPS LOOK GOOD.THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.  MODELS S

.MARINE...AT 8 AM BUOY 020 REPORTED SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 2 FEET 5 SECONDS.  A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.  THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 2
FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE
AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE         BB 092/077 094/077 094 00/30/05/20/05
HARLINGEN           BB 096/077 096/077 097 00/30/05/20/05
MCALLEN             BB 098/076 098/076 099 00/30/10/20/10
RIO GRANDE CITY     BB 099/076 099/076 100 00/20/10/10/10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  BB 091/079 090/079 091 10/30/10/20/10

.BRO...NONE.

SYNOPTIC-GRIDS...58/MARINE-AVIATION-MESO...63

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

TXZ248>257-231100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
152 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS DUE
TO AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
SEABREEZE FRONTS WITH PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MARTIN

TXZ250-251-253>257-221930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
134 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN LIFTED BY THE
SEA BREEZE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. BE ALERT TO POOR
VISIBILITIES AND ROADWAY PONDING IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. PHILO

PHILO