Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Brownsville, TX

June 15, 2003Cameron County, Willacy County, Texas

NWS Brownsville, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 15, 2003, 1:20 PM CDT for Cameron County, Willacy County, Texas. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2003, 1:20 PM CDT (18:20 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2003, 2:00 PM CDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Brownsville, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Cameron County, TX, Willacy County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Brownsville Intl, TX (KBRO), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3746 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 542 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KBRO 151820
SVRBRO
TXC061-489-151900-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
120 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
  SOUTHERN WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF HARLINGEN...AND   
  MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH AND AFFECT THE    
  CITIES OF HARLINGEN BY 125 PM CDT AND RIO HONDO BY 135 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF BAYVIEW IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 2640 9776 2623 9784 2601 9737 2624 9726

$$

PHILO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 15, 9:35 AM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 9:35 AM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
935 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

MCS OUTFLOW BNDRY IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE N...AS
COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHRA/TSRA INVADE FROM NRN TAMAULIPAS. ALL OF
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY IMPRESSIVE SPOKE OF PVA WRAPPING AROUND NW SIDE
OF H5 TROF OVER NERN TX. HAVE BEEFED UP POPS A BIT AND ADDED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO ZFP UPDATE. HAVE REMOVED EARLY FOG WORDING
AS WELL. TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
MCS BNDRY STALLING OVER CWA WITH H5 TROF AXIS OVERHEAD THRU TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...BELIEVE AVN MOS IS WAY TOO LOW FOR THIS
SCENARIO. WILL LEAN TOWARD HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FAVORING
HIGHER NUMBERS DURING DIURNAL HEATING. WILL GO AGAINST MY THINKING
YESTERDAY AND ADMIT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR CONTINUATION OF NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY AS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS.

.BRO...NONE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
BRO TT 090/078 090/078 091/077 70/60/50/50/30
HRL TT 091/077 093/077 093/076 70/60/50/50/50
MFE TT 092/076 094/076 095/075 70/60/50/50/60
RGC TT 094/075 096/075 097/074 70/60/50/50/60
SPI TT 088/080 088/080 088/080 50/60/50/50/30

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...MCELROY(62)
AVIATION/MARINE...PHILO(59)
MESO...ABBOTT

.BRO...NONE.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 10:30 AM CDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before

TXZ248>257-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 8:42 AM CDT, 4 hours 38 minutes before

GMZ130-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-152000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
842 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TODAY...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE MEXICAN GULF
WATERS WILL COLLIDE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES. MANY AREAS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED FROM TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAINFALL RECENTLY...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES COAX
MOISTURE INTO OUR AREAS FROM THE WARM AND MOIST GULF OF MEXICO.

RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
THE HAZARDS PRESENTED BY THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS. FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...VISIT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE WEB SITE AT...

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

PHILO

PHILO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Brownsville, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 10:16 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	BRO		44 min
Jun 15, 11:00 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	BRO		60 min
Jun 15, 11:55 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	BRO	Kenedy	3 hr
Jun 15, 12:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BRO	Kenedy, Willacy	37 min
Jun 15, 12:51 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	BRO	Willacy	3 hr
Jun 15, 1:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BRO	Cameron, Willacy	32 min
Jun 15, 1:58 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	BRO	Cameron	3 hr
Jun 15, 2:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BRO	Cameron	50 min
Jun 15, 2:30 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	BRO		60 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.