Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Brownsville, TX

June 14, 2003Jim Hogg County, Starr County, Zapata County, Texas

NWS Brownsville, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 14, 2003, 3:10 AM CDT for Jim Hogg County, Starr County, Zapata County, Texas. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 14, 2003, 3:10 AM CDT (08:10 UTC)
Expired
Jun 14, 2003, 3:50 AM CDT
In force
40 min
Issued by
NWS Brownsville, TX
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Jim Hogg County, TX, Starr County, TX, Zapata County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Brownsville Intl, TX (KBRO), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brownsville Intl, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-06-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2815 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brownsville Intl, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-06-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 23 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2815 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-105 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1001 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
99 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

702 
WUUS54 KBRO 140810
SVRBRO
TXC247-427-505-140850-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
308 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN STARR COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
  SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
  SOUTHWESTERN JIM HOGG COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

* UNTIL 350 AM CDT

* AT 309 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF ZAPATA TO FALCON DAM...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
   GUERRA BY 335 AM CDT.
   EL SAUZ BY 340 AM CDT.
   RIO GRANDE CITY BY 350 AM CDT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE 
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. 
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG 
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2702 9920 2649 9921 2631 9866 2684 9864

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 13, 9:10 PM CDT, 6 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 13, 9:10 PM CDT, 6 hours before
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
910 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

SHORT TERM...WV IMAGERY SHOWS VORT LOBE APPROACHING FROM WEST TX.
THIS IS HELPING TO GENERATE IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION TO THE NW
OF THE CWA. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYS. BELIEVE
H5 DYNAMICS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN GFS INDICATES. WILL BEEF UP POPS
OVER THE NWRN CWA. WILL ADD LOCALLY SEVERE WORDING TO FIRST PERIOD.
GFS PICKS UP ON SIERRA MADRE RAIN SHADOW...BUT MCS MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE LRGV. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT POPS
OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO THE RAIN SHADOW. BELIEVE
PATTERN CHANGE OF H5 TROF DIGGING IN TO TX IS BEGINNING TO GET
UNDERWAY...IN ACCORDANCE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. BEST CHANCES
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST WITH HIGHER
PM CAPES. TEMP GRIDS LOOK GOOD. HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO MORE CLOSELY
ALIGN WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOWERED POPS SUN WITH H5 LOW/SFC
BNDRY PROGGED BY GFS TO THE N OF THE CWA. MESOETA HAS BEEN TOO
AGGRESSIVE OF LATE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SO WILL
DISREGARD NW FLOW SOLUTION FOR SUN PM. IF MODELS CONVERGE TO THIS
SOLUTION IN LATER RUNS WILL HAVE TO UPDATE ZFP ACCORDINGLY.

LONG TERM...WILL TAPER POPS OFF BEGINNING WED AS GFS PROGS H5 TROF
TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE.

MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED
WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL JET
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PLACE A TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AVIATION...MVR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING WITH MOISTURE POOLING TO THE S
OF MCS NEAR NWRN CWA. BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MFE...
WILL HOLD OFF IN PLACING IN TAF AS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF MCS HAS
SLOWED TO THE S OF LRD.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
BRO BB 081/093 081/093 081 00/10/10/00/00
HRL BB 081/095 081/095 081 00/10/10/00/00
MFE BB 080/098 080/098 080 20/10/10/00/00
RGC BB 077/103 077/103 077 50/20/20/00/30
SPI BB 082/092 082/092 082 00/10/10/00/00

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...MCELROY/STRAUB
AVIATION/MARINE...VANSPEYBROECK
MESO...MARTINEZ

.BRO...NONE.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 13, 9:30 PM CDT, 5 hours 40 minutes before
TXZ248>257-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR JIM HOGG...BROOKS AND
KENEDY COUNTIES.

STRAUB/MCELROY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Brownsville, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 13, 9:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBROZapata42 min
Jun 13, 10:19 PM CDTTornado WarningBROBrooks26 min
Jun 13, 10:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBROJim Hogg23 min
Jun 13, 10:54 PM CDTTornado WarningBROBrooks36 min
Jun 13, 11:02 PM CDTTornado WarningBROStarr43 min
Jun 14, 12:07 AM CDTTornado WarningBROHidalgo23 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.