Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  ENOUGH HEAT AND MOISTURE TO GET THE STORMS
GOING ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH REGION OF DRIER AIR
BETWEEN DENVER AND CHEYENNE MAY WELL MISS OUT AS WEAK DRY OUTFLOW IS
ALREADY SWEEPING ACROSS DENVER.  TOWARD THE EASTERN BORDER THERE IS
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE CORNER WHERE
THERE IS MORE SHEAR AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE.  WHILE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE STORMS...THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
NEAR THE BORDER WHICH COULD LEAD TO BETTER ORGANIZATION.  LARGE HAIL
IN PULSES OR WIND FROM AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER SEEM TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A PROBLEM IF THERE IS TRAINING OR
GOOD ENOUGH OUTFLOW COLLISIONS TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS IN ONE PLACE.
THESE THINGS DO NOT APPEAR TOO LIKELY THOUGH.  ON THURSDAY THERE IS
SLIGHT WARMING.  MODELS HAVE MOISTURE ARRIVING IN WESTERN COLORADO
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO ROTATE ONTO THE
PLAINS UNTIL EVENING.  FIRST PLAINS STORMS COULD BE DURING THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION
UNTIL EVENING.  MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO COOL...GFS MOS FOR AKRON
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ALMOST 10 DEGREES COLD RECENTLY.  STUCK WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOWS AND WENT ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY FOR
HIGHS ON THU...IT COULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.     GIMMESTAD

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  A STATIONARY AND STABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS
ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVR THE U.S. WITH NO SIGNS OF MAJOR CHANGES THRU
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  CONTINUED WARM TEMPS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN
STORY ACRS NE CO...BUT CURRENT SAPIX ARE SHOWING THAT THE AMS MAY BE
UNDERGOING A GRADUAL RE-CHARGING WITH MID-LVL MSTR.  MSTR LEFT OVR
FM AFTN CONVECTION OVR NM AND AZ THE NEXT COUPLE AFTNS WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER LVL ANTI-CYCLONE AND WILL ROTATE ACRS THE
FCST AREA BY THURS EVENING.  WINDS ALOFT WL BE WEAK AND NWLY...SO
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME A PROBLEM TO WATCH
OUT FOR.

IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS WL BE PSBL THRU SAT.  700 MB TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THESE HOT TEMPS ARE NORMALLY ENOUGH TO CAP OFF AFTN CONVECTION.  BUT
IN THIS CASE...MSTR LVLS IN THE AMS WL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS.
MOS GDNC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS COOLER TEMPS...BUT THIS IS
PROBABLY DUE TO LONG TERM PDS OF MOS BEING INFLUENCED BY
CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH IS STARTING TO GET COOLER.  WITH THE UPR PATTERN
REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVR THE WRN U.S. THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...
PERSISTENCE IS GOING TO BE THE BEST TEMPERATURE FCST.   KDRBY

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1040 AM MDT WED AUG 06 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE FRONT RANGE.  WHILE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR FOR STORMS
TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS EVENING NORTHEAST OF AKRON.  THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE STATE.
ONLY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GIMMESTAD