Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
250 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2003

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  WEAK STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.  A FEW STORMS IN SE WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE
WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE...BUT AVAILABLE ENERGY IS AT A
MINIMUM ACROSS NERN CO.  I ADDED ISOLATED STORMS TO SOUTHERN WELD
COUNTY WHERE A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW STORMS TO SURVIVE FOR A WHILE.
STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY MOVE ESE BUT WILL LIKELY DIE AS THEY DO.
LOTS OF CUMULUS S OF THE PALMER DIVIDE BUT STILL CAPPED.  LAPS
ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPE DOWN THERE...SO THE ISOLATED POPS
THERE WILL STAY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHERWISE.  WEDNESDAY LOOKS
MUCH THE SAME WITH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING.  MOISTURE
MAY START TO COME BACK IN THE SE BUT MODELS SEEM TO OVERDO IT WITH
THE 60S DEW POINTS ON THE BORDER.  PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH
ANYTHING ON THE PLAINS COMING LATE.     GIMMESTAD

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  MODELS CONT SHOWING THE STRONG UPR LVL RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE OVR THE 4-CRNRS THRU THE FCST PD.  THE RIDGE AXIS
WL BE OSCILLATING ACRS CO AND NM OVR TIME...BUT THE MAIN POINT IS
THAT UPR LVL WINDS WL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A SELY COMPONENT TO ALLOW ANY
APPRECIABLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO APPROACH THE REGION.  AND THE
GFS MAINTAINS THIS PATTERN THRU 240 HRS.  WITHOUT AN APPRECIABLE
INCRS IN MSTR...THE FCST WILL CONT WITH LOW POPS...PRIMARILY OVR THE
MTNS...IN THE AFTNS AND EVENINGS.  DRY AND WARM CONDS WILL CONT ON
THE PLAINS.

850 MB AND 700 MB TEMPS SHOW WARMING OVR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE PLAINS AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THUR
AND FRI.  700 MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS CELSIUS CUD ACTUALLY BE WARM
ENUF TO CAP AFTN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS.  THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF
THE ROCKY MTNS WL PROBABLY STILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THRU THAT CAP
AND GENERATE ISOLD AFTN SHOWER ACTIVITY.  AFTER SUNDAY...THE GFS
TEMPS BEGIN SHOWING A WEAK AND GRADUAL COOLING TREND.  THAT COULD
BRING THE STREAK OF 90+ DAYS AT KDEN TO AN END ON MON.

ALL OTHER DETAILS OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST CAN BE
ADDRESSED WHEN THEY MAKE IT TO THE SHORT TERM FCST PD.  KDRBY

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1040 AM MDT TUE AUG 05 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...BUT MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  A FEW STORMS ON THE PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

GIMMESTAD/DANKERS