Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
254 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE WITH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. COLD FRONT BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LOCAL
RADAR SHOWING THE DECAYING REMAINS OF LAST NIGHTS MCS WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BEHIND THE DECAYING SHOWERS CLOSER TO
THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THE 12Z ETA AND GFS
ALONG WITH THE RUC INDICATE THIS SCENARIO WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON CAPES ARE BUILDING
QUICKLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
VALUES OF 1000 J/KG ARE ALREADY IN PLACE WHILE VALUES EXCEED 4500
J/KG NEAR THE LOW IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE BASED CIN STILL
300 TO 400 J/KG OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAS ERODED NEAR THE LOW...
SO THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THE ETA PUSHES THE
INSTABILITY AXIS EAST WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT SHEAR ALSO
EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE. WILL
CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH THE
MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND PUSH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS OF DRYING OUT THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE STAYED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE
VALUES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

IN THE EXTENDED...TODAYS 00Z RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS VERY
CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS ENSEMBLES...SO VERY FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS. THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY SUNDAY
NOW LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER SO HAVE PUSHED THE RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO MONDAY.

.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

04

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED.  SOME OF THESE STORMS
HAVE ALREADY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND 800 PM THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE REMAINDER OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA.  THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...WITH A LESSER THOUGH STILL SUBSTANTIAL RISK NORTH OF
THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON THURSDAY. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WITH IT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 800 PM THIS EVENING.

KRC