Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

OVERVIEW: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINGS FROM YESTERDAY...MEAN TROUGH IN
THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST...THE RESULT IS OCCNL SHORTWAVES
COMING DOWN THE RIDGE PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTMS...
AND DIURNAL POPS WHEN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

SHORT TERM: ETA AND GFS ARE SIMILAR...SO TMPS ARE BASICALLY AVG OF
GDNC...WGTD TWD DRY ADIABIATIC LOWERING OF 850 TMP FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS.

TON-THU NGT: WK SFC FRONT SLIDES ACRS CWA PRODUCING SCT EVE
SHRA/TSTMS (ISO EAST WHERE SLGTLY WARMER AT MID LVLS). THU SHLD BE
DRY...XCPT ACRS NE NC ZONES (THU AND ALSO CSTL TID VA THU NGT) WHERE
CHC AFT SHRA/TSTM ALNG STALLED FRNTL BNDRY. THU SHLD BE COOLEST AND
LEAST HUMID DAY OF FCST W/ WK HIGH PRES BLDNG IN AND OK DWPT
GRADIENT W/ FRNT TON.

FRI-FRI NGT: NXT WK FRNT SLWLY CROSSES CWA...W/ ONCE AGAIN BEST
DYNAMICS GOING BY TO N...HWVR MDL SNDGS INDICATE DECENT CAPES (2-3
KJ)...SO CHC AFT/EVE TSTM W/ PASSAGE.

SAT-SAT NGT: BNDRY STALLS OUT NR CWA SO OBLIGATORY DIURNAL POPS...
YET ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID SUMMER DAY.

EXTENDED: 0Z GFS HAD CNVCTV FEED BACK INDUCED VORT WITH A SFC RFLCTN
THAT TRVLD THRU TN VALLEY AND INDICATED A WET SUN...THIS FEATURE
WAS IN NO OTHER MODEL (INCLUDING 6 AND 12Z GFS) SO WAS DISREGARDED.
12Z GFS HAS SIMILAR FEATURE (CNVCTV FEEDBACK INDUCED VORT) THAT
SPINS UP SFC LW ON SLW MVNG COLD FRONT IN VCNTY OF GRT LKS SUN NGT
INTO MON...SO ITS HINTS AT A WET MON WERE ALSO DISREGARDED.
BASICALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/AND BLEND OF 0
AND 12Z GFS WITH SPURIOUS VORTS (AND ASSOC SFC RFLCTNS) IGNORED.
SHLD BE A QUIET SUN ESP N...BUT STILL HAVE HINTS OF LINGERING FRNTL
BNDRY...SO CHC AFT/EVE TSTMS SUN ACRS SRN 2/3 OF CWA. RTN FLW SETS
UP FOR MON...SO DIURNAL POPS EVRY WHERE. COLD FRNT FINALLY APPRCHS
(ASSOC W/ SLW MVNG LOW SYS ACRS SRN CANADA) TUE SO CHC SHRA/TSTM
EVERY WHERE. FRONT DOESNT MAKE COAST TIL WED AM ACCRDNG TO HPC...
AND GFS SUGGESTS IT WILL HANG UP ALNG COAST...SO CHC POPS E...DRY W
WED.

MARINE: NO WINDS ABV 15 KTS (XCPT 15-20 THIS EVNG) IN THE FCST PD
(THRU MON)

FCSTID = 33

SBY 67 85 66 87 / 20 10 10 30
OXB 71 80 70 82 / 20 10 10 30
ECG 72 87 71 89 / 20 20 40 40
ORF 74 85 73 86 / 20 10 30 30
PHF 71 87 70 88 / 20 10 10 30
AKQ 67 88 67 89 / 30 10 10 30
RIC 68 87 68 88 / 30 10 10 30
FVX 66 89 66 90 / 30 10 10 30

.AKQ...
.MD...NONE.
.NC...NONE.
.VA...NONE.

MALOIT

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-161600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

25

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

VAZ065-079-087-170000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
616 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM
MECKLENBURG...BRUNSWICK AND GREENSVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 615 PM...RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BUFFALO SPRINGS
TO SOUTH HILL AND ALBERTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  THE STORMS
WILL AFFECT SOUTH HILL TO EMPORIA AND AREAS ALONG THE STATE BORDER
THROUGH 8 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS.  PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS
IS LIKELY...AS WELL AS STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.  MOTORISTS
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME TO REACH
DESTINATIONS.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE AND CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN DANGER OF BEING
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

NS

VAZ099-100-162245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
618 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHAMPTON COUNTY VIRGINIA...

AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
JAMESVILLE TO KIPTOPEKE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
   NASSAWADOX AND MACHIPONGO AROUND 620 PM...
   EXMORE AND PAINTER AROUND 625 PM...
   CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AROUND 630 PM...
   QUINBY AROUND 635 PM...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES PER HOUR WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN LOW LYING AREAS.

GINGRICH
&&
LAT...LON 3766 7596 3709 7610 3696 7566 3754 7552

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