Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
410 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

OVERVIEW: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINGS FROM YESTERDAY...MEAN TROUGH IN
THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST...THE RESULT IS OCCNL SHORTWAVES
COMING DOWN THE RIDGE PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTMS...
AND DIURNAL POPS WHEN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

SHORT TERM: ETA AND GFS ARE SIMILAR...SO TMPS ARE BASICALLY AVG OF
GDNC...WGTD TWD DRY ADIABIATIC LOWERING OF 850 TMP FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS.

TON-THU NGT: WK SFC FRONT SLIDES ACRS CWA PRODUCING SCT EVE
SHRA/TSTMS (ISO EAST WHERE SLGTLY WARMER AT MID LVLS). THU SHLD BE
DRY...XCPT ACRS NE NC ZONES (THU AND ALSO CSTL TID VA THU NGT) WHERE
CHC AFT SHRA/TSTM ALNG STALLED FRNTL BNDRY. THU SHLD BE COOLEST AND
LEAST HUMID DAY OF FCST W/ WK HIGH PRES BLDNG IN AND OK DWPT
GRADIENT W/ FRNT TON.

FRI-FRI NGT: NXT WK FRNT SLWLY CROSSES CWA...W/ ONCE AGAIN BEST
DYNAMICS GOING BY TO N...HWVR MDL SNDGS INDICATE DECENT CAPES (2-3
KJ)...SO CHC AFT/EVE TSTM W/ PASSAGE.

SAT-SAT NGT: BNDRY STALLS OUT NR CWA SO OBLIGATORY DIURNAL POPS...
YET ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID SUMMER DAY.

EXTENDED: 0Z GFS HAD CNVCTV FEED BACK INDUCED VORT WITH A SFC RFLCTN
THAT TRVLD THRU TN VALLEY AND INDICATED A WET SUN...THIS FEATURE
WAS IN NO OTHER MODEL (INCLUDING 6 AND 12Z GFS) SO WAS DISREGARDED.
12Z GFS HAS SIMILAR FEATURE (CNVCTV FEEDBACK INDUCED VORT) THAT
SPINS UP SFC LW ON SLW MVNG COLD FRONT IN VCNTY OF GRT LKS SUN NGT
INTO MON...SO ITS HINTS AT A WET MON WERE ALSO DISREGARDED.
BASICALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/AND BLEND OF 0
AND 12Z GFS WITH SPURIOUS VORTS (AND ASSOC SFC RFLCTNS) IGNORED.
SHLD BE A QUIET SUN ESP N...BUT STILL HAVE HINTS OF LINGERING FRNTL
BNDRY...SO CHC AFT/EVE TSTMS SUN ACRS SRN 2/3 OF CWA. RTN FLW SETS
UP FOR MON...SO DIURNAL POPS EVRY WHERE. COLD FRNT FINALLY APPRCHS
(ASSOC W/ SLW MVNG LOW SYS ACRS SRN CANADA) TUE SO CHC SHRA/TSTM
EVERY WHERE. FRONT DOESNT MAKE COAST TIL WED AM ACCRDNG TO HPC...
AND GFS SUGGESTS IT WILL HANG UP ALNG COAST...SO CHC POPS E...DRY W
WED.

MARINE: NO WINDS ABV 15 KTS (XCPT 15-20 THIS EVNG) IN THE FCST PD
(THRU MON)

FCSTID = 33

SBY 67 85 66 87 / 20 10 10 30
OXB 71 80 70 82 / 20 10 10 30
ECG 72 87 71 89 / 20 20 40 40
ORF 74 85 73 86 / 20 10 30 30
PHF 71 87 70 88 / 20 10 10 30
AKQ 67 88 67 89 / 30 10 10 30
RIC 68 87 68 88 / 30 10 10 30
FVX 66 89 66 90 / 30 10 10 30

.AKQ...
.MD...NONE.
.NC...NONE.
.VA...NONE.

MALOIT

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-161600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

25

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

VAZ073-078>090-NCZ012-162100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
353 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THROUGH 5
PM...

AT 350 PM...RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKE GASTON TO PRINCE GEORGE...TO THE MIDDLE PENINSULA
AND NORTHERN NECK.  THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.  AREAS FROM JACKSON AND EMPORIA...TO WAKEFIELD...
WILLIAMSBURG...GLOUCESTER AND LANCASTER...CAN EXPECT BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE AND CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN DANGER OF BEING
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.  SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

NS

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