Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
320 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

.OVERVIEW...PROGRESSIVE PATN ACRS ERN CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS A SERIES OF MIGRATORY SYSTEMS DROP THRU GREAT LAKES AND ACRS NRN
MID ATLC/NE STATES. AFTER A WET START EARLY TODAY...MUCH OF THE
RMNDR OF THE WORKWEEK DRY AND SEASONABLE.

.SHORT TERM...FIRST SHORT WAVE TROF DIGGING CROSSING THE MTNS THIS
MORN AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY TWD THE COAST TODAY. SWATH OF ASSOCD PCPN
MOVG ACRS PIEDMONT AREAS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND TWD CSTL PLAIN THRU
MID MORN. PCPN QUITE HEAVY IN SPOTS BUT AMOUNTS REMAINING BLO 1HR/3HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ATTM. WL CONT TO WATCH CLOSELY BUT THINK ANY
FLOOD PROBS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN FFA. ALSO
CONVECTION MAY BE STRING ENUF TO PULL DOWN 35-40 MPH WINDS WHICH CUD
KNOCK OVER ANY LEANING OR WEAKENED TREES REMAINING FROM ISABEL. PCPN
MOVES QUICKLY OFF THE COAST BY ARND MIDDAY AS UPR CONFLUENCE/MID LVL
SUBSIDENCE PUSHES EAST. DOWNSLOPING HELPS TEMPS RECOVER BACK
NR80/L80S UNDER CLEARING AFTN SKIES.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH COOL READINGS IN THE
L-M50S AWAY FM COAST (PSBL U40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS).

VERY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY. SOME INCREASING AFTN CLOUD COVER WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS SFC HIGH/UPR RDG MOVE OFFSHORE.

.EXTENDED...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF/SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH ON THU. BEST
SUPPORT FOR PCPN AND HIGHER MEAN RH MOVE N OF AKQ FORECAST AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. THINK ANY PCPN ACRS AKQ FORECAST AREA WUD BE ISOLD
SO NO INCLUSION IN FCST ATTM.

.MARINE...WL KEEP SCA IN THE BAY THIS MORN GIVEN MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD SFC COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDS THIS MORN WITH PCPN BAND. IMPROVING TO
VFR THIS AFTN.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...
SBY 79 52 76 56 / 80 00 00 10
OXB 79 60 74 61 / 80 00 00 10
WAL 79 58 77 60 / 80 00 00 10
FVX 80 53 79 55 / 30 00 00 10
RIC 80 57 78 58 / 40 00 00 10
PTB 81 54 79 56 / 40 00 00 10
AKQ 80 56 80 58 / 60 00 00 10
PHF 80 61 77 59 / 60 00 00 10
ORF 81 64 78 64 / 80 00 00 10
ECG 82 61 80 64 / 80 00 00 10

.AKQ...
.MD...NONE.
.VA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CHES BAY S OF SMITH POINT.
.NC...NONE.

CULLEN

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-231600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE JAMES...APPOMATTOX AND
CHOWAN RIVER BASINS /SEE WBCFLWAKQ AND WBCFLSAKQ FOR DETAILS/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ALONG THE JAMES...APPOMATTOX
AND CHOWAN RIVER BASINS /SEE WBCFLWAKQ AND WBCFLSAKQ FOR DETAILS/.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CULLEN

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND  STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

VAZ048-049-060>071-079-080-231045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I95 AND I85 CORRIDORS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES EXPECTED BY 6 AM. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OCCASIONAL DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY ALSO OCCUR. EARLY MORNING MOTORISTS
ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES IN AND AROUND THE
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. THESE WIND GUSTS COULD KNOCK DOWN LEANING OR
WEAKENED TREES FROM RECENT HURRICANE ISABEL.

CULLEN

MDZ021>024-VAZ099-231315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
821 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE DELMARVA...

AT 821 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALISBURY TO 14 MILES
WEST OF CRISFIELD...OR FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAUREL TO 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF FAIR PORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR   SALISBURY AROUND 845 AM EDT POCOMOKE
CITY AROUND 910 AM EDT OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS
INCLUDE FRUITLAND AND PRINCESS ANNE.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF CAUSING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN LOW LYING AREAS.

TAKE SHELTER WHILE THESE STORMS PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

92
&&
LAT...LON 3860 7577 3784 7623 3769 7555 3844 7509

NCZ014>017-030>032-VAZ095>098-231330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
832 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 832 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHURCHLAND TO 14 MILES
WEST OF EDENTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
  SUNBURY AROUND 840 AM EDT
  RYLAND AROUND 845 AM EDT
  DOWNTOWN PORTSMOUTH AROUND 900 AM EDT
  EDENTON AROUND 905 AM EDT
  WINFALL AROUND 915 AM EDT
  KEMPSVILLE AROUND 920 AM EDT
OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE CAMDEN...DEEP
CREEK...DOWNTOWN NORFOLK...DOWNTOWN SUFFOLK...ELIZABETH CITY...
GATESVILLE...GREAT BRIDGE...HERTFORD...SOUTH MILLS AND WEEKSVILLE.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORM. WITH TREES
ALREADY WEAKEND FROM ISABEL THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SOME TREES TO
FALL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

92
&&
LAT...LON 3702 7655 3606 7695 3583 7633 3678 7591

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
0833 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0630 AM    3 SSW GLENDALE            VA   WIND DAMAGE
09/23/03   HENRICO                        SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN
                                          ON ROUTE 5

ALS