Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
320 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

.OVERVIEW...PROGRESSIVE PATN ACRS ERN CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS A SERIES OF MIGRATORY SYSTEMS DROP THRU GREAT LAKES AND ACRS NRN
MID ATLC/NE STATES. AFTER A WET START EARLY TODAY...MUCH OF THE
RMNDR OF THE WORKWEEK DRY AND SEASONABLE.

.SHORT TERM...FIRST SHORT WAVE TROF DIGGING CROSSING THE MTNS THIS
MORN AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY TWD THE COAST TODAY. SWATH OF ASSOCD PCPN
MOVG ACRS PIEDMONT AREAS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND TWD CSTL PLAIN THRU
MID MORN. PCPN QUITE HEAVY IN SPOTS BUT AMOUNTS REMAINING BLO 1HR/3HR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ATTM. WL CONT TO WATCH CLOSELY BUT THINK ANY
FLOOD PROBS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN FFA. ALSO
CONVECTION MAY BE STRING ENUF TO PULL DOWN 35-40 MPH WINDS WHICH CUD
KNOCK OVER ANY LEANING OR WEAKENED TREES REMAINING FROM ISABEL. PCPN
MOVES QUICKLY OFF THE COAST BY ARND MIDDAY AS UPR CONFLUENCE/MID LVL
SUBSIDENCE PUSHES EAST. DOWNSLOPING HELPS TEMPS RECOVER BACK
NR80/L80S UNDER CLEARING AFTN SKIES.

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH COOL READINGS IN THE
L-M50S AWAY FM COAST (PSBL U40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS).

VERY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY. SOME INCREASING AFTN CLOUD COVER WITH
DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AS SFC HIGH/UPR RDG MOVE OFFSHORE.

.EXTENDED...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF/SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH ON THU. BEST
SUPPORT FOR PCPN AND HIGHER MEAN RH MOVE N OF AKQ FORECAST AREA THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. THINK ANY PCPN ACRS AKQ FORECAST AREA WUD BE ISOLD
SO NO INCLUSION IN FCST ATTM.

.MARINE...WL KEEP SCA IN THE BAY THIS MORN GIVEN MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD SFC COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDS THIS MORN WITH PCPN BAND. IMPROVING TO
VFR THIS AFTN.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...
SBY 79 52 76 56 / 80 00 00 10
OXB 79 60 74 61 / 80 00 00 10
WAL 79 58 77 60 / 80 00 00 10
FVX 80 53 79 55 / 30 00 00 10
RIC 80 57 78 58 / 40 00 00 10
PTB 81 54 79 56 / 40 00 00 10
AKQ 80 56 80 58 / 60 00 00 10
PHF 80 61 77 59 / 60 00 00 10
ORF 81 64 78 64 / 80 00 00 10
ECG 82 61 80 64 / 80 00 00 10

.AKQ...
.MD...NONE.
.VA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CHES BAY S OF SMITH POINT.
.NC...NONE.

CULLEN

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-231600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE JAMES...APPOMATTOX AND
CHOWAN RIVER BASINS /SEE WBCFLWAKQ AND WBCFLSAKQ FOR DETAILS/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT ALONG THE JAMES...APPOMATTOX
AND CHOWAN RIVER BASINS /SEE WBCFLWAKQ AND WBCFLSAKQ FOR DETAILS/.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CULLEN

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND  STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

VAZ048-049-060>071-079-080-231045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2003

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I95 AND I85 CORRIDORS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES EXPECTED BY 6 AM. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OCCASIONAL DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY ALSO OCCUR. EARLY MORNING MOTORISTS
ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION.

WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES IN AND AROUND THE
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. THESE WIND GUSTS COULD KNOCK DOWN LEANING OR
WEAKENED TREES FROM RECENT HURRICANE ISABEL.

CULLEN