Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
416 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ETA AND GFS ARE BACK IN NEAR COMPLETE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAIL END OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GFS HAS SLOWED ITS SOLUTION FOR BRINGING S/W
ONSHORE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. AS A RESULT...S/W IN WSW FLOW ONCE
AGAIN SHOWING UP IN GFS AND PROGGED TO LIFT INTO CWA ON WEDNESDAY
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS
OVEREXCESSIVE..MOISTURE RETURN ON NOSE OF WAA PATTERN FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN GFS. BETWEEN ETA AND GFS...GFS IS
ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF OVER CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. POPS
ALREADY IN GRIDS...SO WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW.

FOR TODAY...ELEVATED SFC...BETWEEN 850HPA AND 700HPA APPEARS TO BE
ACTING AS SOURCE OF MOISTURE/WIND CONVERGENCE...TO THE TUNE OF
REDEVELOPING SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERAGE OVER CWA THIS AM. UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK INFRINGING UPON DAKOTAS AND 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
ALSO AIDING IN TSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 10K FT OR BETTER IN SOME CASES...WITH MINIMAL RESPONSE NOTED
IN ASOS CEILINGS DATA...BUT PLENTY OF CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HUNG UP THIS MORNING ALONG A LINE FROM KMBG TO
KPIR...SO LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTORM COVERAGE OVER
EASTERN CWA TODAY...WITH FROPA NOW TAKING A BIT LONGER TO COMPLETE.
CORE OF UPPER LEVEL JET PROGGED TO PASS OVER CWA TODAY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CWA. WIND FORECAST MAY BE
SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE FOR WINDSPEEDS ON BACKSIDE OF FROPA THIS
AFTERNOON. 6 HRLY PRESSURE TENDENCIES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7 MB...SO
DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MET...BUT COULD SEE
BRIEF BRUSH WITH 30G45KT RIGHT ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS IN
TACT. HIGH PRESSURE DAY ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE...WITH
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH FORMING AND SEEING
OCCASIONAL SFC LOW CENTER FORM WITHIN IT...AND LIFT EASTWARD ONTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE WEAKENING INTO EAST TO WEST TROUGH
AXES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED ATTM.

.ABR...NONE.

DORN

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-151045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
550 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS
BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME HAIL...AN EVEN GREATER THREAT
THIS MORNING COMES FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS FRONT COULD SET OFF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DORN