Alert archive / South Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Aberdeen, SD

July 13, 2003Brown County, South Dakota

NWS Aberdeen, SD issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2003, 10:33 PM CDT for Brown County, South Dakota. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2003, 10:33 PM CDT (03:33 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2003, 11:30 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Aberdeen, SD
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Brown County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 13, 8:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2251 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -228 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1843 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 183 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 3:25 PM CDT, 7 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 3:25 PM CDT, 7 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MDLS SHOW A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SE ACROSS THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 18Z MON. THE NGM WAS THE QUICKEST.
THERE WILL BE GOOD LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MON MRNG ACROSS THE
CWA. THE MID LEVEL CAP REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME TSRAS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS NC SD AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL. THERE SHOULD BE MORE TSRA
DEVELOPMENT INTO NE SD AND WC MN THROUGH MON MRNG ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOUTH WINDS DECREASING BY SUNSET. TEMPS SHOULD ONLY FALL TO 65 TO
AROUND 70 BY MON MRNG. THERE MAY BE SOME AFTN TSRAS IN FAR NE SD AND
WC MN MON AFTN ALONG FRONT OTHERWISE...MON AFTN S/B DRY FOR THE CWA
WITH NW WINDS AND P/C SKIES. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES. THUS...EXPECT CLEAR TO P/C
SKIES...LESS HUMIDITY...DRY CONDITIONS AND NOT MUCH WIND THROUGH
THIS TIME. TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS A
WARM FRONT RETURNS ALONG WITH A LLJ AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
ALSO...A WK S/W SHOULD SLIDE NE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH NO CAP IN
PLACE...EXPECT SOME TSRAS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST TUES NIGHT AND DEVELOP
INTO THE REST OF CWA INTO WED NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FOR NOW
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM IN THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  GFS CONTINUES TO HANG ONTO WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY...TAKING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THROUGH AREA ON THURSDAY.  HOWEVER GFS
HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE WHICH COMES MORE INLINE WITH TRENDS OF NOGAPS/CANADIAN AND NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEANS.  NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 HPA FIELD EVEN DEPICTING
MEAN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IN POSITION OF OPERATIONAL
TROUGH AXIS.  THUS HAVE PREPARED EXTENDED FORECAST UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THIS SLOWER FURTHER NORTH TREND OF GFS WILL CONTINUE
SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY.  MORE AND MORE AM LIKING THE
NOGAPS/CANADIAN IDEA OF HOLDING BACK POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS WEST COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THIS SOLUTION ALSO GETTING SOME SUPPORT FROM LATER PERIODS
OF ETA.  MODELS ALSO SHOW WEAK VORT LOBES PASSING OVER ROCKIES INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER RIDGE.  MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH PERIOD BUT GIVEN DRAMATIC MODEL DIFFERENCES
WILL NOT MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES TO POPS.  FOR NOW WILL JUST LOWER
FRIDAY POPS TO 20 AND THEN KEEP SATURDAY CHANCE POPS GOING AS WEST
COAST POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALLOWS FOR POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID
LEVEL COOLING WITH RIDGE RIDER.  OVERALL HOWEVER TOUGH TO FAVOR ONE
PERIOD OVER ANOTHER POST FRIDAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW.

.ABR...NONE

MOHR/MARSILI

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 5:32 AM CDT, 17 hours 1 minute before

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-141030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS
BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

DORN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 13, 8:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jul 13, 10:20 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

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        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Aberdeen, SD issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 7:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Stanley	41 min
Jul 13, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Hughes, Sully	50 min
Jul 13, 8:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Campbell	36 min
Jul 13, 9:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Walworth	25 min
Jul 13, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Campbell, Edmunds, McPherson	51 min
Jul 13, 9:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Walworth	17 min
Jul 13, 10:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Edmunds, McPherson	62 min
Jul 13, 10:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Faulk	45 min
Jul 14, 5:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Edmunds	41 min
Jul 14, 5:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Faulk, Potter	33 min
Jul 14, 6:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown, McPherson	52 min
Jul 14, 6:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Brown	46 min
Jul 14, 7:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Clark	29 min
Jul 14, 8:02 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Codington, Hamlin	28 min
Jul 14, 8:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Day	22 min
Jul 14, 8:52 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Grant	38 min
Jul 14, 9:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABR	Day	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in South Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.