Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI AUG 16 2002

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE STATE
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TYPICAL MONSOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS GONE...AND THE SURGE CONTINUES.
THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WAS A MAJOR STOPPER TO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY IN THE WEEK BECAUSE WE KEPT MIXING DRY AIR INTO THE SURGE
LAYER WITH A SUBSEQUENT LOWERING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS BEGAN TO RELAX AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TODAY SHOULD BE
BETTER...TUCSON SOUNDING LOOKS EXPLOSIVE WITH CAPE OVER 3000 IF WE
CAN REACH MAX TEMPERATURE...SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE UP 3
TO 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE LOW DESERTS...WITH MODERATE CUMULUS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ON OUR MOUNTAINS. ALOFT...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD IN THE
MID LEVELS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER AJO AREA DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. A SPEED MAX IS ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF
AND SHOULD BE IN THE BASE OF THE TROF TONIGHT PROVIDING US WITH SOME
LEFT FRONT QUAD ACTION. STEERING FLOW IS WEEK BUT MOTION SHOULD PUSH
STORMS NORTHWEST. OVER IN EASTERN ZONES MOISTURE IS MUCH LOWER AND
ACTIVITY MAY STILL HANG NEAR MOUNTAINS..

TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-170700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1130 AM MST FRI AUG 16 2002

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE LOW
DESERTS WHILE THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SEVERITY.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM A GULF SURGE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL SATURATED
WITH MOISTURE WHILE THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY. THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUNDING FROM TUCSON THIS MORNING GAVE A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
1.20 INCHES AND WITH STRONG HEATING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PIMA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COCHISE...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES... DRY
AIR AT ALL LEVELS IN WESTERN PIMA...GREENLEE...AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THEREFORE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY...THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE INCH RAIN IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
0128 PM MST FRI AUG 16 2002

TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0124 PM    FT. HUACHUCA              AZ   .75 INCH HAIL
08/16/02   COCHISE