Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Tucson, AZ

August 16, 2002Pima County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 16, 2002, 4:30 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 16, 2002, 4:30 PM MST (23:30 UTC)
Expired: Aug 16, 2002, 5:00 PM MST
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Pima County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1872 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -127 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1868 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

650 
WUUS55 KTWC 162330
SVRTWC
AZC019-170000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
428 PM MST FRI AUG 16 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 500 PM MST

* AT 427 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF KITT PEAK...OR ABOUT 19 
  MILES NORTHEAST OF SELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM...ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 86 
BETWEEN SELLS AND THREE POINTS. RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY 
FILL NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND OTHER LOW LYING AREA WITH RUNNING 
WATER. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND NEVER ATTEMPT TO 
CROSS ROADWAY DIPS FILLED WITH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

THIS WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3194 11173 3194 11149 3223 11148 3222 11171

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 16, 2:29 PM MST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 2:29 PM MST, 2 hours 1 minute before

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST FRI AUG 16 2002

.SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE STATE
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TYPICAL MONSOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...RATHER BUSY CONVECTIVE DAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF UPPER
LOW AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CWA.
WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS LAPSE RATE ARE STEEP AND MOST STORMS ARE
PRODUCING HAIL...SOME LARGE ESPECIALLY WHERE WE HAVE HAD STORM
MERGERS. MODELS HAD NO CLUE. WE HAVE ALSO HAD SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...MOSTLY ON THE MOUNTAIN BUT A FEW HAVE NOW MOVED INTO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE EVEN BETTER DAY TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW SETS UP A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND FLOW...AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN AREA.
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO GET GOING BECAUSE OF TODAYS ACTIVITY. BUT
DONT THINK LOW DESERTS WILL BE HIT MUCH TODAY SO WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER UP DAY TOMORROW.

OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS SHOW STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE FOR
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO AS LOW SETS UP TO THE WEST...SO OUR BREAK IN THE
MONSOON IS OVER.

TWC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 600 PM MST FOR ZONES 029
      032>035.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 11:30 AM MST, 5 hours before

AZZ019-029>035-170700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1130 AM MST FRI AUG 16 2002

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE LOW
DESERTS WHILE THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SEVERITY.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM A GULF SURGE WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL SATURATED
WITH MOISTURE WHILE THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY. THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUNDING FROM TUCSON THIS MORNING GAVE A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
1.20 INCHES AND WITH STRONG HEATING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.

WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PIMA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COCHISE...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES... DRY
AIR AT ALL LEVELS IN WESTERN PIMA...GREENLEE...AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THEREFORE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS TODAY...THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE INCH RAIN IS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

Local storm report, Aug 16, 1:28 PM MST, 3 hours 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
0128 PM MST FRI AUG 16 2002

TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0124 PM    FT. HUACHUCA              AZ   .75 INCH HAIL
08/16/02   COCHISE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 16, 12:54 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	51 min
Aug 16, 2:02 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	28 min
Aug 16, 2:11 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	49 min
Aug 16, 2:24 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	66 min
Aug 16, 2:24 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	6 min
Aug 16, 3:47 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.