Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1145 AM MST TUE JUL 9 2002

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL KEEP DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL STEER A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...LEADING TO A DAILY
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...18Z SOUNDING JUST IN, AND AS EXPECTED, WE ARE FIGHTING
A WEAK CAP AROUND 700MB. PRECIP WATERS ARE ALSO DOWN TO A MORE
MANAGEABLE 1.36, AND MEAN E FLOW IS STILL AROUND 15KTS. WHILE THESE
FACTORS MAY STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD EVENT OR TWO, IT
MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR UNLESS WE SEE SOME
ORGANIZATION ON THE TSTMS NOW JUST STARTING TO FIRE ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER. OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN NOW, THOUGH, IS THE INVERTED-V LOOK
TO OUR SOUNDING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VERY BROAD CYCLONIC TURN OVER W
TX/E NM WHICH IS HEADING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION. THE AVN DOESNT
HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL, AND THE ETA IS A LITTLE TOO CONCENTRATED
WITH IT. IF THIS STARTS TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER, WE COULD END UP WITH INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO SHORT
LINES AND FINALLY AN MCS AS IT PROPAGATES TOWARD THE HIGH PRECIP
WATERS OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN DESERTS. IN SHORT, NO CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH IS CURRENTLY EMPHASIZING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. PYTLAK

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-100700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1212 PM MST TUE JUL 9 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS UTAH HAS ALLOWED
AMPLE MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
RESIDES IN THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH A SLIGHT DRYING OCCURRING AT
LOW-LEVELS TODAY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE GENERALLY CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION
IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN THE WESTERN DESERTS.

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH HAS ALLOWED
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO IMPORT AMPLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES WEST OF A LINE FROM PATAGONIA TO TUCSON TO KEARNY
WITH ANOTHER MAXIMUM IN FAR EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRIER AIR AT LOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS TODAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS THERE.

ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A LACK OF ANY UPPER DISTURBANCE
TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO PUSH WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE
EASTERN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS
EVENING. THE RISK OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
THE EASTERN VALLEYS WHERE LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS OCCURRING. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN
DESERTS...THE RISK OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
INCREASES. THEREFORE...THE REGION WILL SEE CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE WESTERN DESERTS.