Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 8, 2002Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 8, 2002, 6:16 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 8, 2002, 6:16 PM MST (01:16 UTC)
Expired
Jul 8, 2002, 7:00 PM MST
In force
44 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 2002-07-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 174 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 2002-07-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 17 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
174 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
3674 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
46 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

469 
WUUS55 KTWC 090116
SVRTWC
AZC003-090200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
615 PM MST MON JUL 8 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COCHISE COUNTY IN ARIZONA

* UNTIL 700 PM MST

* AT 608 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER MULESHOE RANCH PRESERVE BETWEEN THE 
  GALIURO AND WINCHESTER MOUNTAINS...OR ABOUT 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
  WILLCOX...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED. GO INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3202 11045 3202 11017 3244 10993 3243 11044

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 8, 2:35 PM MST, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 2:35 PM MST, 3 hours 41 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST MON JUL 8 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO A POSITION TO ALLOW
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE FROM NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THEM TO BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN VALLEYS LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WE
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED MORE SUNSHINE...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON...WITH REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA (EXCEPT WESTERN PIMA COUNTY) UNDER A BKN DECK OF
MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROF OVER NORTHERN
SONORA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. APPEARS THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL BE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA TONIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROF
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST AND INCREASE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH BEST DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE BORDER...SONORA IS LIGHTING UP
FOR THE FIRST TIME...AND THAT IS A GOOD SIGN. HOPEFULLY OUTFLOWS
FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THERE WILL SPREAD NEEDED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT REALLY
KICKS IN TUESDAY AND HANGS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST
GOING FOR THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS
DUE TO CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP THEM RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR JULY. G

.TWC...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 8, 7:23 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise37 min
Jul 8, 8:36 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise39 min
Jul 9, 3:43 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCCochise, Graham47 min
Jul 9, 4:10 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima35 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.