Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL SEE STEADY
OR FALLING TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS THE REST OF THE DAY.
CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THE REST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 AND WILL
LOWER POPS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A RESULT. WILL MENTION
SEVERE IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH
VERY INTENSE SEVERE STORM MOVING INTO LATIMER COUNTY NOW AND NEW
WATCH JUST OUT. LIKE YESTERDAY...VERY LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE
AND LARGER LOOKS LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT THE STORMS ARE IN.

UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
1049 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0835 PM    2 SE OOLOGAH              OK   .88 INCH HAIL
03/24/02   ROGERS                         EMERGENCY MGMT REPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
1101 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1040 PM    MARBLE CITY               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/25/02   SEQUOYAH                       REPORTED BY
PUBLIC

1015 PM    MUSKOGEE                  OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/25/02   MUSKOGEE                       REPORTED BY
PUBLIC

1041 PM    CLAREMORE                 OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/25/02   ROGERS                         REPORTED BY
SPOTTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
1108 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0835 PM    OOLOGAH                   OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/24/02   ROGERS                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED DATES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA, OK
1110 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1040 PM    MARBLE CITY               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/24/02   SEQUOYAH                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC

1015 PM    MUSKOGEE                  OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/24/02   MUSKOGEE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC

1041 PM    CLAREMORE                 OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
03/24/02   ROGERS                         REPORTED BY SPOTTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1128 AM CST MON MAR 25 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0854 PM    BROKEN ARROW              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
03/25/02   TULSA                          REPORTED BY CO-OP
                                          OBSERVERS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CST MON MAR 25 2002

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 4 PM...

AT MID DAY A FRONT LIED NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA.  LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FROM NEW
MEXICO.  THE LOW PRESSURE WILL ACT AS A KICKER AS INTO MOVES
NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT.  UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS A HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 4 PM AND
POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THIS EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
STEEP LAPSE RATES...ABUNDANT MOISTURE A STRONG FORCING WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
FAYETTEVILLE TO MCALESTER LINE.  ALTHOUGH WIND FIELD ABOVE THE FRONT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC TUESDAY

THREAT AREA 1...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MCLEASTER TO FAYTEVILLE LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...100
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET IN AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF TULSA. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.