Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

STG CONVECTION EXPECTED TNGT WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW. SHEAR/
INSTABILITY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SVR STMS. ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS
FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE WOULD TEND TO KEEP ERN PTN
OF CWA IN BEST THREAT AREA DUE TO LOWER FF INDICES AND RECENT RAINS.

WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH OVER ERN PTN CWA TNGT IN ANTICIPATION OF
HEAVIER RAIN. ONLY DOWNSIDE TO FLOODING EVENT WOULD BE SGFNT
CONVECTIVE EVENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WOULD TEND TO SHIFT HEAVIER PCPN
BAND SOUTHEAST OF AREA.

BEYOND TNGT...AM FOLLOWING ETA/MESO-ETA FCST WITH DRY LINE MVG INTO
WRN PTN AREA BY EARLY WED AFTN. LIKE MESO-ETA SFC TEMPS TOO...WHICH
WOULD BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MUCH OF THE AREA...MUCH WARMER THAN
MOS VALUES IN ANY CASE. PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY
LINE WEST TO EAST OVER CWA.

COOLER/DRYER REST OF WORKWEEK...BUT NEXT WAVE CLOSE BEHIND
FOR CHC TSTMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

FNT MOVG THRU WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE LIKELY NOT TO MOVE TOO FAR
SOUTH. PCPN FOR TUESDAY MAY BE NEEDED IN FNT HANGS UP FURTHER NORTH.

.TOP...FLOOD WATCH ERN PTN CWA TNGT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
SABETHA TO ALMA TO EMPORIA

KSZ011-012-023-024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059-080900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1033 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM SABETHA TO ALMA AND EMPORIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OVER GROUND THAT HAS BECOME WET FROM RECENT RAINS...MAY
PRODUCE SOME FLOODING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR VEHICLE AND ITS
OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1035 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1034 PM    ALMA                      KS    60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/07/02   WABAUNSEE                       TRAINED SPOTTER