Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

STG CONVECTION EXPECTED TNGT WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW. SHEAR/
INSTABILITY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SVR STMS. ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS
FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE WOULD TEND TO KEEP ERN PTN
OF CWA IN BEST THREAT AREA DUE TO LOWER FF INDICES AND RECENT RAINS.

WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH OVER ERN PTN CWA TNGT IN ANTICIPATION OF
HEAVIER RAIN. ONLY DOWNSIDE TO FLOODING EVENT WOULD BE SGFNT
CONVECTIVE EVENT TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WOULD TEND TO SHIFT HEAVIER PCPN
BAND SOUTHEAST OF AREA.

BEYOND TNGT...AM FOLLOWING ETA/MESO-ETA FCST WITH DRY LINE MVG INTO
WRN PTN AREA BY EARLY WED AFTN. LIKE MESO-ETA SFC TEMPS TOO...WHICH
WOULD BRING 80S AND LOWER 90S TO MUCH OF THE AREA...MUCH WARMER THAN
MOS VALUES IN ANY CASE. PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING WITH ARRIVAL OF DRY
LINE WEST TO EAST OVER CWA.

COOLER/DRYER REST OF WORKWEEK...BUT NEXT WAVE CLOSE BEHIND
FOR CHC TSTMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

FNT MOVG THRU WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE LIKELY NOT TO MOVE TOO FAR
SOUTH. PCPN FOR TUESDAY MAY BE NEEDED IN FNT HANGS UP FURTHER NORTH.

.TOP...FLOOD WATCH ERN PTN CWA TNGT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
SABETHA TO ALMA TO EMPORIA