Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
320 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2002

PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR MOVING EAST ALONG THE
NEB/KS STATE LINE. THIS HAS HELPED CONVECTION CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PULSE UP AND
PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, DO NOT EXPECT WIDE SPREAD
SEVERE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE. THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP AFTER 6 PM WILL BE
WHERE THE SUN HAS BEEN BROKEN OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND BEEN ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. ONCE THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION MOVES
SOUTH AND EAST, CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE THAT GOOD. WILL KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
30 POPS ELSEWHERE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
BECOMES SHEARED. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS, BUT DO NO THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT POPS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE BIGGEST CHANCE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DELAY THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP UNTIL WEDNESDAY
FOR THE WHOLE CWA. I ALSO LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE.
CONSIDERED REMOVING POPS ALL TOGETHER AS THE AVN FOR THE PAST THREE
RUNS HAS BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED AND SHOWING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
AREA AS THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER WEST TX AND EAST NM. HOWEVER
SHORTWAVE VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE FRINGES OF THE
RIDGE, AND THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS LESS RIDGING THEN THE AVN. KEPT
FORECAST DRY AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPS AND
KEPT THEM NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.TOP...NONE

WOLTERS