Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT SAT AUG 24 2002

AM WONDERING HOW MUCH THE WEAK PINCHED H500 RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL HELP IMPEDE THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
THE PRECIPITATION OUT WEST.  EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE CUT
DOWN BY 18Z, BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE POPS OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES TODAY, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE LIKELY FROM
ABILENE TO EMPORIA.

HAVE USED AVN MODEL AS THE BASE FOR THIS FORECAST, WHICH TAKES THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
TONIGHT.  AVN IMPLIES ONLY THE EASTCENTRAL COUNTIES WILL GET RAIN,
BUT 06Z MESOETA STILL SHOWING ANOTHER MCS MOVING FROM NORTHCENTRAL
TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LAYER FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THIS SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

VERY LITTLE OTHER CHANGES TO ON-GOING FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

ROGERS

.TOP...NONE