Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2002

HEAT/HUMIDITY...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

A MORE OR LESS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING...KEEPING EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT
WEATHER GOING FOR THE AREA.

MODELS ARE FINALLY SHOVING UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF AREA TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND PROFILERS SHOWING GOOD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT
PRESENT TIME AT 500MB OVER CWA. HOWEVER...STILL GETTING FAIR AMOUNT
OF WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON
RADAR TO EAST OVER MKC ARE...DRIFTING TO SSW. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70 TO 75 RANGE...STILL SEEING HIGH CAPES IN MODELS FOR TODAY WITH
MINIMAL CAP OVER EASTERN PART OF CWA. CURRENTLY HAVE POPS IN FOR
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF CWA...WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO EAST CENTRAL AS WELL DUE TO EXTREME HEAT/INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL
CAP. TEMPWISE...ETA MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS BEST IN THAT CAN SEE NO
REASON FOR BACKING OFF HOT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS FWC/MAV MOS
INDICATING.

WEAK FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA...NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY SOUTH. FARTHER NORTH 00Z
SATURDAY POSITION OF AVN MODEL APPEARS BEST. FRONT THEN INDICATED TO
LIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH FRONT NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO
CWA...STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS CWA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...CONTINUED WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS CWA
FOR THE EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FRONT RETREATING NORTH AND UPPER
RIDGE
IN PLACE...ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOT DAYS IN STORE FOR CWA. VARIOUS
MOS POPS REMAIN LOW SO WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING. GOING WITH
PERSISTENCE ON HOT TEMPERATURES...FROM AROUND 102 NORTH CENTRAL TO
95-98 NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL. WILL ISSUE SPS CONCERNING HOT
WEATHER FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AVN FINALLY BRINGS FRONT SOUTH INTO CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING FRONT
ACROSS MOST OF CWA BY MID DAY MONDAY. THUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
CURRENT ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING REASONABLE. SHOULD ALSO SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM NORTH WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK
INTO UPPER TEENS RANGE BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

WILL ISSUE SPS CONCERNING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.TOP...NONE

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