Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
136 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

RAIN THREAT AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

ENVIRONMENT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE SO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS STILL EXISTS.  WILL RETAIN THIS ASPECT IN NEW FORECAST
PACKAGE. CONVECTIVE THREAT CONTINUES WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IN THE
AREA ALONG WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ASSIST WITH FORCING THROUGH
WEDSNESDAY NIGHT.  SPC ALSO OUTLOOKS CWA FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WILL GO DRY FROM THURSDAY ON EXCEPT HAVE INCERTED THUNDERSTORMS BACK
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTS COULD
TRANSPIRE.

ON TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST TOPPED OFF WITH TREND TOWARD CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.TOP...NONE

LWS

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-120000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2002

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT...MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  THE INITIAL AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE NEAR THE
CONCORDIA...WASHINGTON AND BELLEVILLE AREAS NEARER THE COLD
FRONT...AND GENERALLY AFTER 3 PM.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ROLLED THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT HAVE LEFT SMALL SURFACE
BOUNDARIES BEHIND THAT COULD ALSO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE OF THOSE BOUNDARIES RUNS FROM HIAWATHA TO
MANHATTAN.

WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
LIKELY. WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS...RAINFALL
COULD EASILY TOTAL AT LEAST ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER COMMERCIAL OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.