Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2002

HOW HIGH TO GO ON PROBABILITY CHANCES THE NEXT 48 HOURS MAIN CONCERN
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS ALL COUPLED WITH MODELS SHOWING SEVERAL
EMBEDDED UPPER IMPULSES ADDING TO THE LIFT POTENTIAL.  WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF STATE
AND SHOULD MARCH NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF STATE DURING
EVENING...AND HEAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW IS BOUNDARYS AND FRONTAL POSITIONS.  SHOULD
HAVE SOME LEFT OVER CONVECTION FAR EAST AND THEN EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
REFIRE IN AFTERNOON HOURS.  GIVEN TEMPS TODAY...HAVE RAISED NUMBERS
A TAD FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS ON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY.  TUESDAY NIGHT
WEDNESDAY...MAIN FRONT SAGS ACROSS AREA AND SHOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  AVN/FWC NUMBERS POPS LOOK A LITTLE LOW GIVEN
THE AIR MASS.  HAVE RAISED POPS AND MENTIONED SOME HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  QUESTION ON HOW MUCH TO TRIM HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED PRECIP.  WENT ALONG WITH GOING FORECAST FOR
NOW...AND KEEPING POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE.  PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY
EXIT AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BEYOND THIS...KEPT GOING FORECAST DRY BUT NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY COULD POSES SOME THREATS.  THOUGHT WE WOULD WAIT ONE
MORE RUN.  OTHERWISE LOWERED GOING TEMPS A TAD FOR HIGHS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WARMING UP A TAD SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.TOP...NONE
FRANTZ