Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM TPA BAY AREA...NORTHWARD TO CITRUS.
ANOTHER ENE/WSW LINE OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM HIGHLANDS...SW TO
CHARLOTTE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. STILL EXPECTING
ISOLD STRONG TSTMS (POSSIBLY SVR) THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
HEAT INDICES NOT QUITE AS HIGH GIVEN TEMPS ONLY AROUND 90...BUT
STILL EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS TO REACH 105.

--SHORT TERM--
SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK UPPER SHEAR
AXIS STICKS AROUND OVER THE S PENIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ETA LOOKS
OVERDONE WITH CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS UPPER SHEAR
CENTER OFF THE SE FL COAST. PWS REMAIN 1.8 TO 2 INCHES WITH SFC
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN FA. THIS KEEPS LIGHT SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH WEAK STEERING LIKELY THROUGH MON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLD STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN. WILL KEEP COASTAL
POPS AROUND 40% AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER 50% INTERIOR...CENTERED MAINLY
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT AFTN HEAT INDICES TO CONTINUE 100 TO
105 DEG RANGE...BUT STILL UNCERTAIN NIGHTTIME MINS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
80+ TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY.

--EXTENDED--
SFC RIDGE AXIS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CENT FA BY TUE/WED...BUT THEN SAG
BACK INTO THE S FA THURS FRI AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF ENTERS THE
SE US. WILL CONTINUE SCT POPS WITH NORM TEMPS. HOPEFULLY EXTREMELY
HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL EASE UP AS UPPER HTS WEAKEN.

--MARINE--
NO HIGHLIGHTS OR MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH NEW FORECAST. EXPECT
GENERALLY LT SW FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MORE VARIABLE
OVER THE S WATERS UNDER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 073/092 073/091 2424
TPA 079/091 078/090 2424
GIF 075/093 075/092 3535
SRQ 077/090 076/090 2424
FMY 076/092 075/091 2424=

.TBW...NONE.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-192000-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1055 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES...
...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PRODUCE MODERATELY HIGH HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES. IF
YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS TODAY...DRINK PLENTY OF NON-ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS...
DRESS IN LIGHT WEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING...AND AVOID
PROLONGED STRENUOUS ACTIVITY AND EXPOSURE IN THE DIRECT SUN.

IN ADDITION TO THE VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST ALONG THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE...THEN DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAK EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY PUSH THUNDERSTORMS
SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. ALSO...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION OF
ANY STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FOR MARINE INTEREST...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUT
FORMATION...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IN THE
EVENT ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS...OR POSSIBLY WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY.

MORALES