Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2002

CURRENTLY:PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF SE ALA/GA AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY ACROSS FLA ZONES. SCT DECK AT 3K AND C-BKN10-12K EXCEPT FOR
CIGS AOB 2K ACROSS SRN HALF OF FLA AND ADJ WATERS. RADAR INDICATES
STG TO SEVERE CONVECTION PERSISTING ACROSS S HALF OF FLA ZONES
EXTENDING INTO MAINLY APALACH BAY AND MOVG ESE AROUND 15 MPH. TEMPS
RUNNING 85 TO 90 SE ALA/GA DOWN TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. DEW
POINTS 70 TO 75.

DISCUSSION:LOOKING AT THE BIG PIX...MOST OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVE
CONVECTION REMAINS W OF MISS RIVER AND/OR NORTH OF MASON DIXON LINE.
LOCALLY...PERSISTENT UPR TROF DIGGING SWD FROM MID-ATLC ACROSS CWFA
AND INTO CNTRL GULF...CONTS TO DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER AND LARGE
SCALE PATTERN SHOWS ONLY SLOW CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS. H5 RUC SHOWS
SEVERAL VORTS ROLLING AROUND BASE WITH ONE APPROACHING FT WALTON
BEACH THAT WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN OR EARLY
EVENING MAINLY IN AREAS IMPACTED BY WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF
TROF...SEA BREEZE AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHT
CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SCNTRL FLA KEEPING LO LVL FLOW LGT
SWLY.

SO FAR GA/SE ALA HAS REMAINED IN LARGELY UNMODIFIED AIR WITH
TEMPS EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES...SO WITH ENERGY COMING DOWN BASE OF
TROF...THESE AREAS ALSO PRIMED FOR ACTIVE EVENING OR NIGHT.
PERSISTENT INSTABILITY REFLECTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HGHT
X-SECTIONS WHICH REVEAL CONT HIGH PWATS...STEEP LI...COOLING ALOFT
AND HIGH CAPES. FOR EXAMPLE AVN TLH SNDG WITH 2.15-2.22 PWAT...
35-37 K INDICES, AND -5 TO -7.5 LI THRU 60 HRS. AVN TIME HGHT CONTS
DEEP LYR MOISTURE. RH PROGS SHOW FLA ZONES WITH BEST MOISTURE.
CONT CONCERNED WITH SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS MAINLY COASTAL COUNTIES
RECEIVING ADDNL HEAVY RAIN AND THIS MUST BE MONITORED. SO FAR AREA
RIVERS BEHAVING THEMSELVES.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN UPR/LWR TROF AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO MID
WEEK...ABOVE NORMAL CLIMO POPS EXPECTED. ETA CONTS WETTEST AND AVN
DRIEST BUT ALL SHOW MID-HI SCT POPS TONIGHT...HI-SCT TO LIKELY
TOMORROW AND ONLY SMALL DROP PD 3-5. WILL KEEP 4 ZONE ZFP WITH 40-50
PCT POPS TONIGHT AND LIKELY TOMORROW. TEMPS CONT TO MODERATE AND
INFLUENCED BY ONSET OF PRECIP.

MARINE:BUOYS CONT 5 TO 10 NEARSHORE...10 TO 15 OFFSHORE WITH ONE
FOOT SEAS. WILL UP POPS TO WDLY SCT-SCT AND INSERT WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHER NEAR...

FIRE WX:NO CONCERNS.

EXTENDED:BEGINNING MID WEEK TROF FINALLY WASHES OUT AND UPR RIDGE
BUILDS BACK FROM ATLC TO OVER CWFA. THIS HELPS PUSH SURFACE RIDGE
BACK INTO LOCAL AREA...BACK WINDS AND ALLOW RETURN TO NORMAL CLIMO
CONDS DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZE.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TLH 072 091 073 091 5755
PFN 077 089 077 089 5644
DHN 073 090 074 091 4544
ABY 073 090 073 090 4454
VLD 072 091 072 091 4654

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

BLOCK

FLZ027-211830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2002

AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY THAT WILL MOVE EAST
AROUND 8 MPH IN WAKULLA COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT 5 MINUTES.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...PEA SIZED
HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

24-BLOCK