Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2002

VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CU FORMING WITH SEA BREEZE ALONG FL
BIG BEND...& SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL FORMATION OVER EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE. WITH NE-E FLOW...PENETRATION WILL NOT BE THAT FAR INLAND.
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ALSO PUSHING INLAND...& WITH ENERGY
APPROACHING...SHOULD LIGHT UP THINGS PRETTY GOOD OVER SE GA. CLOUD
MASS WITH CONVECTION OFF GA & SC COAST SHOWING SOME MOVEMENT
E-SE...WITH SOME CONVECTION NOW IN SC COASTAL AREAS. RUC & MESOETA
STILL MAINTAIN TREND TO PUSH THIS ENERGY SE & OVER CWA THIS LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING...BUT DO WEAKEN IT. RUC HAS A BIT FARTHER SE
TREND THAN MESOETA. EVENING POP WILL BE IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS BOUNDARY WEAKENING & STALLING OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL GA TO NORTH-CENTRAL AL. EARLIER WEAK TROUGH NOT SEEN IN
PATTERN MUCH NOW. THETA-E GRADIENT STILL DEPICTING NORTHERN BOUNDARY
WELL.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...BUT
DO HAVE SMALL SCALE DIFFERENCES. EAST SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN BECOMES MORE SE. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MAIN
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON & EVENING SCATTERED CONVECTION...AS MODELS
BUILDING RIDGE A BIT OVER GULF & N FL. BY TUESDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE
APPEARS ON ALL MODELS...WITH A LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ETA ON
TUESDAY SENDS LARGE CONVECTION AREA TO WEST COAST OF FL...WHILE AVN
SOLUTION SIMILAR BUT NOT AS MUCH QPF. LONGER RANGE AVN EVENTUALLY
TAKES LOW TO NORTH GULF OFF FL PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A
WAIT & SEE SITUATION. THIS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTERS TREND. ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST FLOW THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THEN MORE
SE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY BECOMES A BIT MORE
STABLE BY MID-WEEK WITH LESS IMPULSES & THE UPPER RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CURRENT TREND WITH LOWER TO MID 70S AS
LOWS...WHILE AROUND 90 TO SOME MID 90S. MODEL TEMPS KEEP HIGHS IN
LOWER 90S...BUT HAVE SEEN SOME MID 90S IN SPOTS.

FIRE WX: NO HEADLINES. AS WINDS INCREASE WITH EAST FLOW...DISPERSION
VALUES WILL RISE SOME & APPROACH CAUTION LEVELS...BUT AT THIS TIME
JUST WILL BE MONITORED.

MARINE FORECAST: NO HEADLINES FIRST 24 HOURS. BUT AS EAST FLOW PICKS
UP INTO MID-WEEK...MAY REACH SCEC.

EXTENDED: SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHER GULF
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL SET UP A S-SW FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASED
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON & EVENING SHOWERS & TSTMS. WILL ALSO MONITOR
ANY TROPICAL LOW FORMATION.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TLH  073 092 073 093 3333
PFN  075 089 075 089 3333
DHN  072 092 073 092 2222
ABY  071 092 072 092 3333
VLD  072 092 072 092 3333

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

MCT