Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2002

THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD MCS THAT PUSHED ACROSS SOUTHERN GA HAS
WEAKENED...BUT STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH FACTORS PRESENT OVER AREA. BEST CHANCES
MAY BE WITH LIMITED SEA BREEZE INTERACTION...NOW STARTING TO FORM
ALONG THE COASTS. WILL OF COURSE KEEP SOME POP IN EVENING FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SEEN IN WIND PATTERN &
THETA-E PATTERN OVER CENTRAL GA TO NORTHERN AL. MESOETA CONTINUES TO
DEPICT OMEGA LIFT & QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT PUSHES W-SW...THEN
SETTLES THINGS DOWN AFTER SUNSET. THEN SUNDAY MORNING HAS NEXT
IMPULSE IN NE FLOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN GA & NORTH FL...REACHING
COASTAL AREAS AROUND SEA BREEZE INITIATION TIME. MONDAY MUCH LESS
ACTIVE IN MESOETA OVER CWA WITH STRONGER EAST FLOW.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTION OF TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN GA...WITH
SHORTER RANGE HANDLING CURRENT REMNANTS DRIFTING THROUGH AREA BEST.
NEW ETA/AVN & NGM NOT SHOWING SYSTEM THE MESOETA HAS FOR SUNDAY...
BUT DO SHOW A LOWERING OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON MONDAY. APPEARS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL THEN DRIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT SUNDAY. AVN
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF FIELDS OVER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...EAST
FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER CWA...WHICH NORMALLY KEEPS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. IS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER AREA... WHICH IS ON THE
LOW SIDE FOR ACTIVE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. LI ALSO RANGES FROM -1 TO
-5...WHILE CAPE VALUES 1000-2000J/KG. TYPICAL VALUES FOR JULY OVER
NORTH FL. WITH A BIT OF UPPER RIDGING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN 90
TO 95 INLAND...NEAR 90 AT THE COASTS. POP CHANCE WILL BE IN 30-50%
RANGE...WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EVENING CHANCES. DID SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG LAST NIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN
FORECAST.

FIRE WX:  NO HEADLINES TODAY. POSSIBLE WATCH ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
DISPERSION VALUES EXPECTED OVER FL.

MARINE FORECAST: NO HEADLINES. WINDS & SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL PICK UP SOME SUNDAY & MONDAY WITH INCREASED EAST
FLOW. MAY THEN SEE SCEC.

EXTENDED: NO CHANGES. MOSTLY AFTERNOON TO EVENING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION. LOWS IN 70S...HIGHS IN LOWER 90S. AVN HAS A EASTWARD
MOVING WAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...BUT STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
CWA.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TLH  71 92 72 93 3333
PFN  73 88 74 89 3333
DHN  73 92 73 93 2222
ABY  72 91 72 92 3333
VLD  72 92 72 92 3333

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...FIRE WX WATCH FOR HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ON SUN.

MCT

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-070130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THEN IT WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING. THIS THROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE CAROLINAS, AND A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS GEORGIA, TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PEACH STATE. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA, BUT A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW MAY BRING A FEW AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. IF THIS OCCURS,
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
TODAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

7-TREXLER