Alert archive / Michigan / Tornado Watches in 2002

Tornado Watch 719

October 4, 200249 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 4, 2002, 1:10 PM EDT for 49 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 4, 2002, 1:10 PM EDT (17:10 UTC)
Expired: Oct 4, 2002, 6:00 PM EDT
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 49 counties

Allegan County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Barry County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Chippewa County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Luce County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Warnings issued inside it

10 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 4, 1:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Manistee	49 min
Oct 4, 1:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Mason	24 min
Oct 4, 1:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Mason	18 min
Oct 4, 1:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Benzie	35 min
Oct 4, 1:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Muskegon, Ottawa	31 min
Oct 4, 2:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Newaygo	28 min
Oct 4, 2:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	APX	Emmet	34 min
Oct 4, 4:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Calhoun, Eaton	38 min
Oct 4, 4:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ingham, Jackson	47 min
Oct 4, 5:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton	26 min

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 212 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 309 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -61 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 502 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 198 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 230 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS20 KWNS 041715
SEL9  
SPC WW 041710
MIZ000-LMZ000-LSZ000-LHZ000-042200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 719
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

   LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN                      
   EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN                      
   EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR                      
   WESTERN LAKE HURON                         

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL 600
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KALAMAZOO MICHIGAN TO 30
MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAULT STE MARIE MICHIGAN.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. 
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING LK
MI EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS WARMER AIR SPREADING NWD
E OF THE LAKE.  STRONG /70 KT/...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP SHEAR
ALREADY PRESENT MAY FURTHER INCREASE AS JET MAX NOW OVER WI
CONTINUES EWD.  AS A RESULT...SQUALL LINE SHOULD REMAIN SEGMENTED
...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SMALL SCALE BOWS POSING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES. 

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH...EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.  A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. 
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20045.

...CORFIDI

414,0870 465,0855 465,0831 414,0843

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 4, 4:00 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alcona, Alpena, Arenac, Bay, Genesee, Huron and 15 more	4 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2002 Every tornado watch in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.