Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM IS TIMING PRECIP OUT OF THE
GRR CWA THIS EVENING...AND THEN POPS WITH NEXT SYSTEM LATE
SUNDAY/MON. FOR TONIGHT...WILL TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING AS WARM CONVEYER BELT PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR THE
EASTERN CWA AROUND 00Z. INSTABILITY REMAINS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF THE CURRENT BATCH OF PRECIP HOWEVER...AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. UPSTREAM OBS OVER MN/IA
SHOW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 40...AND WILL GO
WITH THESE WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE JUST BELOW WIND ADV
CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

STRONG CAA CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND DIURNAL CU MAKING FOR A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. MAXES NEAR 60
LOOK GOOD GIVEN 850 TEMPS IN THE 2 TO 4C RANGE. FAIR WEATHER SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WAA PATTERN SETTING UP AS CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE BUT BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE GRR
CWA. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND SCT SHRA
FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW PULLING AWAY ON MONDAY MORNING
AND CAA...850 MB TEMPS IN THE MINUS 2 TO 4 RANGE...AND CYCLONIC FLOW
COMBINING TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND MAX TEMPS THAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 50S. SOME FROST POTENTIAL MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS MID LEVEL WAA SHOULD HELP SKIES CLEAR AND SFC
RIDGING WILL KEEP SFC WINDS LIGHT.

WEAK RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON TUE...BUT FAIRLY DRY NW FLOW UNDER BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WILL MEAN THAT THE NEXT CLIPPER THAT
PASSES WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUE NIGHT/WED WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED. WILL NOT PUT POPS IN FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR THAT
REASON. SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST AND FLOW GOES ZONAL AFTER WED...SO WILL
GO WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS THU AND FRI.

OSTUNO

.GRR...NONE.

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...

A SQUALL LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS AT
NOON. WINDS AT MILWAUKEE GUSTED TO 45 MPH AT 1145 AM AS THIS LINE OF
STORMS MOVED THOUGH. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 1 AND 6 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...THAT MAY GUST OVER 60 MPH WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. SHORT LIVED...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE...THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THIS TYPE OF DAMAGE HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OTHER HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL
HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OSTUNO

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-042200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
122 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MASON...LAKE...OCEANA...NEWAYGO AND MUSKEGON

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OSCEOLA...CLARE...ISABELLA...MECOSTA...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA...CLINTON...INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IF YOU
LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RG BDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
244 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    2 N COOPERSVILLE          MI   WIND DAMAGE
10/04/02   OTTAWA                         TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          CO-OP OBSERVERS

JK

MIZ037-043-050-041945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2002

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MASON...OCEANA AND MUSKEGON
     AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM MANISTEE TO NEW BUFFALO

THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL 6 PM EDT.

RG BDM