Tornado Warning 19, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
240 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002

UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE AGAIN TO ADD TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM THIS
EVENING FOR BROWN AND SAN SABA.

.SJT...TORNADO WATCH BROWN AND SAN SABA UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
    ...TORNADO WATCH ALL OTHER ZONES...EXCEPT MASON...UNTIL 7 PM
       THIS EVENING.

    ...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.

23/HUBER

****  312 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2002 DISCUSSION FOLLOWS  ****

ONGOING PRECIP THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HELPED ALONG
BY A VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TOUGH OVER
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.  PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY THIS MORNING.  CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY THIS MORNING ABOVE A COOL AND STABLE
SURFACE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE HAIL WITH A
COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  MAIN PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST.  STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.  LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...WILL STILL SEE DECENT INSTABILITY.  ETA STILL SHOWING CAPES
IN THE 1500 RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
COUNTIES.  EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DRYLINE MOVE THROUGH.

CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER BY MORNING.  ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIP.  THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING WEST TEXAS
ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS THE TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE MORE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 070/051/075/050 630
SJT 073/052/077/051 510
JCT 075/053/078/050 550

.SJT...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TODAY.

08

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-071930-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT ENTERS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PEOPLE THROUGHOUT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD TUNE INTO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-071930-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1208 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT ENTERS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PEOPLE THROUGHOUT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD TUNE INTO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-071930-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT ENTERS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PEOPLE THROUGHOUT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD TUNE INTO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.