Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...CLOUD CANOPY CURRENTLY INHIBITING HEATING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS SHOWN BY THE LAPS STILL SHOWING -200 TO -300 J/KG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL WE CAN GET A LITTLE
MORE HEATING AND A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER SO THAT THE
CAP CAN WEAKEN. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS GENERATED BY CONVECTION
THIS MORNING HAS MOVED ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF SJT. THIS BOUNDARY IS SLOWING
AND SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MAY HELP TO FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER
THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS WHERE BETTER
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXIST. ONE OVER THE BIG COUNTRY IN AN AREA
NEAR THE STRONGEST WAVE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND MOVE IN THIS EVENING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CAN GET OUT OF
THE AREA TO ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP. IF THIS DOES NOT
OCCUR...THEN A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH 50 TO
60 KT SPEED MAX COMING INTO THE AREA. OTHER MAIN AREA WILL BE FROM
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVER TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. THIS WILL BE
FROM ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE FORECAST WHERE CURRENTLY LAPS
ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE INDICATES CAP IS BEGINNING TO ERODE DUE TO
MORE SOLAR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION THAT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OR DISSIPATE
BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS AREA IS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS STILL A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT WILL PROBABLY LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RECOVER SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. UPPER LOW
OVER BAJA WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE DRY LINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
FORECAST FOR EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THIS COULD OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD AT THIS
POINT.

.EXTENDED...THINGS REALLY DRY OUT FOR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS
ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY THAT MAY GIVE US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

ABI 060/087/062/086 4001
SJT 061/089/061/087 3001
JCT 057/088/057/084 3100

.SJT...NONE.

27/BRAZZELL

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-132200-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
115 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA THROUGH TONIGHT...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
BUT SO FAR TODAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER HAS REALLY LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING. AS A RESULT...THE STRONG CAP HAS INHIBITED
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A SOUTHWARD SINKING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM STERLING CITY...TO
BALLINGER AND COLEMAN AT 1 PM...AND MAY REACH SAN ANGELO AND
BROWNWOOD BEFORE STALLING AROUND 2 PM OR SO.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL AFTER 4 PM...WHEN THE CAP WILL FINALLY WEAKEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED 3 W EOLA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO, TX
422 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0714 PM    SAN ANGELO                TX   .88 INCH HAIL
04/12/02   TOM GREEN                      SOUTH SIDE OF SAN ANGELO
                                          NEAR BENTWOOD SUBDIVISON

0730 PM    SAN ANGELO                TX   .75 INCH HAIL
04/12/02   TOM GREEN                      HIGHWAY 87 ON SOUTH SIDE
                                          OF SAN ANGELO

0812 PM    SAN ANGELO                TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/12/02   TOM GREEN                      SAN ANGELO WEATHER SERVICE
                                          OFFICE

0855 PM    WALL                      TX   .75 INCH HAIL
04/12/02   TOM GREEN

0912 PM    3 W EOLA                  TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/12/02   TOM GREEN

MKD