Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
825 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2002

BASED ON LATEST WSR-88D TRENDS...INCREASED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN
CONCHO VALLEY TO REFLECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO
OTHER CHANGES.

.SJT...NONE.

23/HUBER

****  300 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2002 DISCUSSION FOLLOWS  ****

UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...THIS MAY BE BACK LATER
THIS EVENING IN THE BIG COUNTRY. THERE STILL IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS
BOUNDARIES...CAPE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -6. HOWEVER WITH
THE AREA STILL CAPPED...ONLY EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON. LAPS ANALYSIS AND THE RUC INDICATE THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO.

...BELOW IS THE AFTERNOON LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT EVIDENT ACROSS HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON COUNTIES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL
WARNING RADARS. ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. LARGE CIN VALUES
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIME BEING. TO THE WEST...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

DAYS 1-3...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY BY 3 PM IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD
FRONT. BUT WITHOUT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SURMISE STORMS
WILL FIZZLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING CEASES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
CAPES COULD APPROACH 3500 J/KG BY 6 OR 7 PM. MIGHT EVEN SEE A FEW
CELLS POP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU. CURRENT WATCH EXPIRES AT 3 PM...BUT ADDITIONAL
WATCHES ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY MIDNIGHT...CONTRIBUTING
TO MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WITH THE COLD
FRONT ABOUT 100 MILES FURTHER SOUTH...SURMISE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX WILL CLIP THE BIG COUNTRY...MAINLY AFTER 3
AM.

BOUNDARIES GALORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE AIRMASS STILL
VERY UNSTABLE. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS SOUTH OF I-20. UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN OVER THE ROCKIES TO PROVIDE BETTER DYNAMICS.

RIGHT NOW...THINKING DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SAVE FOR
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY NEAR STALLED
BOUNDARY. CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPEARS TO FAR AWAY
TO DO ANY GOOD. TRANQUIL MONDAY.

DAY 4-7...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PROMOTE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 063/080/057/081 3340
SJT 064/083/060/084 1230
JCT 062/086/061/084 0232

.SJT...NONE.

17/24