Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
515 PM CST TUE MAR 19 2002

CURRENT...LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL BE UPDATING ZONES SHORTLY TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AND ALSO REMOVE CROCKETT AND SUTTON COUTNIES FROM TORNADO WATCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

.CURRENT...SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. STATIONARY
BOUNDARY STILL LOCATED BETWEEN SAN ANGELO AND JUNCTION WITH SEVERE
CONVECTION FIRING STILL ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM NEAR ELPASO. RADAR CONTIUES TO
SHOW CONVECTION FILLING IN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO WORKING IN FROM THE PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF A ABILINE
TO SAN ANGELO LINE TONIGHT SLOWLY COMMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER AS UPPER-LOW COMES ACROSS...EXPECT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND CURRENT WARNINGS ON GOING WILL GO WITH
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SONORA TO ABILENE.

.LONG TERM...SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG COUTNRY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING TO FOLLOW. OTHERWISE BECOMING
CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH NEXT FRONT COMMING THROUGH
ABOUT FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED...THE MRF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS SHIFT TOOK THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OUT OF THE FORECAST AND LOOKING AT THE ECMWF...THIS LOOKS GOOD. ALSO
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS WELL.

ABI 046/063/038/071 8000
SJT 044/064/039/073 8000
JCT 046/065/038/072 8000

.SJT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH SOUTH OF A STERLING CITY TO COLEMAN
LINE TILL 6 PM.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST OF A SONORA TO AILIENE LINE.

27/BRAZZELL